US House Elections: My Predictions N-O
Aug. 22nd, 2010 04:41 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
redneckgaijinTwo letters, eleven states.
NEBRASKA- 3 seats
Districts 1 and 3 are overwhelmingly Republican, with very weak Democratic candidates. District 2 has a serious Democratic challenger (a state senator) and gave one electoral vote to Obama in 2008 (barely)... but incumbent Lee Terry is popular and more sane than the average Republican in this day and age (not that that says much). All three Solid R.
STATE SCORE: D 0, R 3, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 113, R 112, 13 Tossup
NEVADA- 3 seats
District 1 is safe for the Democrats- really, GOP, nominating a bounty hunter? The Republicans are equally safe in District 2- the Democrats fielded only a middleweight candidate, and it's the most rural (and white) of the three districts.
District 3, deliberately drawn as a swing district, might swing again. Dana Titus is a freshman Democrat facing a middleweight Republican challenger (a physician and former state senator). She won in 2008 with less than 50% of the vote, so even without the backlash polling she's vulnerable. I'm calling this one at least a tossup.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 1, 1 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 114, R 113, 14 Tossup
NEW HAMPSHIRE- 2 seats
In the 1st District, incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter faces a number of Republican challengers ranging from laughable to middleweight-respectable. With incumbency and New England on her side, I think she's pretty safe. The 2nd has no incumbent, though, with Paul Hodes seeking the Senate. Republican Charlie Bass is seeking a return to the House, and to be honest I don't see either of the Democratic contenders being able to stop him in this environment- making that race Lean R in my book.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 1, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 115, R 114, 14 Tossup
NEW JERSEY- 13 seats
Weak challengers mean strong calls in Districts 1 (D), 2 (R), 7 (R), 8 (D), 9 (D), 11 (R), 12 (R), and 13 (D). Demographics put Districts 5 (R), 6 (D), and 10 (D). Chris Smith (R) has held the 4th District since 1981, and he's not likely to be shifted in this environment- also a strong call.
That leaves only one swing district- the 3rd, in which a freshman Democrat faces a former pro football player. John Adler (the Democrat) only won by about 52-48 despite outspending his opponent in 2008 by about eight to one. He's going to face someone who, as an NFL veteran, has some of the best credentials for conservatives that any neophyte politician could ask for. I'm calling this one Lean R- Adler's probably going to lose this one no matter how much he spends, unless Mr. Jon Runyan self-destructs somehow.
STATE SCORE: D 6, R 7, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 121, R 121, 14 Tossup
NEW MEXICO- 3 seats
All three of the seats are held by Democratic freshman, although the 3rd District has been held by Democrats for a very long time indeed. That seat is safe for the Democrats. The 1st District (Albuquerque) is a Lean D, with a somewhat weak Republican candidate in a slightly Democratic-leaning district. That leaves the 2nd District, which could otherwise be called Confederate New Mexico- the southern half of the state. Democrat Harry Teague faces former Rep Steve Pearce in that race, and to be honest Teague is so blue-dog that it doesn't matter much who wins. I'm calling this a Lean R, with the tiebreaking factor being the expected throw-the-bums-out vote.
STATE SCORE: D 2, R 1, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 123, R 122, 14 Tossup
NEW YORK- 29 seats
LOCKED:
1 Republican with Democratic opponent without website/organized campaign (26) - 1 total
3 Democrats with no opposition outside party (10, 12, 16), 1 Democrat with only third-party opposition (11), 1 Democrat with Republican opponent without website/organized campaign (7) - 5 total
STRONG:
Incumbent party with weak opposition: Dists. 2 (D), 3 (R), 5 (D), 9 (D), 15 (D), 17 (D), 18 (D), 21 (D), 22 (D), 27 (D), 28 (D)
Demographics/past results: Dists. 4 (D), 6 (D), 8 (D), 14 (D)
So... what have I got left? Districts 1, 13, 19, 20, 23, 24, 25 and 29. Let's take those in order, hm?
Although the 1st District is a swing district on paper (affluent, mostly white, mix of new suburban and old rural/maritime), in practice it's got a long-term incumbent Democrat in there and a trio of credible but less-than-impressive Republican challengers. (One of whom thinks putting the fact that he's Nixon's grandson on his resume is a good thing). Incumbency plus a lack of an outstanding Republican challenger puts this one in my Leans D list.
The 13th District is Staten Island- the conservative part of NYC. Freshman Michael McMahon has been embarrassing himself there, and it's not like he had much of a margin to work with- he was only elected on the strength of Vito Fossella's martial problems. Even with some fairly weak Republican opposition, I have to call this one Leans R.
The 19th is a swing district with a hint of Republican lean from the rural vote. The incumbent Democrat, John Hall, is a two-termer who first won in 2006 52-48 and was relected 58-42 in 2008. Absent Obama coattails (and possibly with Obama millstones), he's borderline if the Republicans put up a credible candidate. Neil DeCarlo might be that man, if he can self-finance. If DeCarlo doesn't win the nomination, Hall skates through. I call this one, for the time being, a Tossup.
Scott Murphy (D) required a recount to win the special election for District 20's seat- against a Republican carpet-bag candidate. He faces Chris Gibson in the regular election in November... and he's very, very vulnerable, even to a relative unknown like Gibson. Rank this one a Leans R, since dissatisfaction with Obama and Congress is going to hit Murphy despite his best efforts to blue-dog his way out of them.
Next, the 23rd District, which taught us all (briefly) how to spell Scozzafava. Bill Owens would have lost last winter's special election had the Republicans been united, had not certain national Republican figures decided to use this race to score points with the tea party crowd. And there's a chance it could happen again: the Conservative Party nominee who drove the Republican Scozzafava out of the race, out of her party, and likely out of politics is challenging again, seeking both Conservative and Republican nominations. Another Tossup for the pile, here- no way of knowing how this one is going to come out.
District 24 is a rematch from 2008, when incumbent Democrat Mike Arcuri beat Republican Richard Hanna by a slim margin. With Arcuri's blue-dog voting record sure to depress his base, the rematch should be a reversal of fortunes, with Hanna going to Washington and Arcuri going home. Leans R.
In the 25th, incumbent Democrat Dan Maffei faces an assistant state attorney general, Ann Marie Buerkle. She'll probably be a good candidate, but Maffei seems to have a magic touch- nearly unseating a long-time incumbent in 2006 before winning outright (and handily) in 2008. This one's at least a Lean D.
Finally, the 29th... Eric Massa's former seat. Yeeeeeeah. Even if the Democratic candidate wasn't a weak one, this one would be a Strong R.
STATE SCORE: D 21, R 6, 2 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 144, R 128, 16 Tossup
NORTH CAROLINA- 13 seats
LOCKED:
1 Republican with Democratic opponent without website/organized campaign (10) - 1 total
STRONG:
Incumbent party with weak opposition: Dists. 1 (D), 2 (D), 3 (R), 4 (D), 5 (R), 6 (R), 7 (D), 8 (D), 9 (R), 12 (D), 13 (D)
Really, the only race I see worth watching here is Heath Shuler's re-election bid for the 11th District. Shuler has proven almost as useless to the Democrats as to the Redskins and Saints. Only his overwhelming personal popularity in his home district (plus a massive war chest) makes this race a Leans D rather than a Tossup or even Leans R, in my book.
STATE SCORE: D 8, R 5, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 152, R 133, 16 Tossup
NORTH DAKOTA- 1 seat
Earl Pomeroy is that rare thing indeed- a Democratic representative from a one-rep red state. This time he's facing a real tough challenger in former State House Speaker Rick Berg, and he's going to be going to the polls with his patron Byron Dorgan retiring from the Senate. In the current environment- and especially considering that Berg is out-fundraising Pomeroy by a considerable margin- I think Pomeroy's out of a job. Leans R.
STATE SCORE: D 0, R 1, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 152, R 134, 16 Tossup
OHIO- 18 seats
LOCKED:
1 Republican with Democratic opponent without website/organized campaign (4) - 1 total
1 Democrat with Republican opponent without website/organized campaign (11) - 1 total
STRONG:
Incumbent party with weak opposition: Dists. 2 (R), 3 (R), 5 (R), 7 (R), 9 (D), 10 (D), 13 (D), 17 (D)
Demographics/past results: Dists. 8 (R)
Battleground state ahoy.
Dist. 1- Cincinnati, a true swing district. Democrat Steve Driehause and Republican Steve Chabot are in a rematch. Driehouse beat Chabot pretty narrowly in 2008; Chabot had held the seat for multiple terms before then. In the current political environment I look for Chabot to take back his seat. Leans R.
Dist. 6- A predominantly rural, poor, white, semi-Appalachian district (bordering the Ohio River, anyway), it's something of a miracle that the Democrats have held it for the past decade. It looks like the miracles continue, since incumbent Charlie Wilson (no, not that one) has drawn a tax protester for his Republican opponent. Lean D, but this race will be interesting to watch just to see how strong the tea party really is.
Dist. 12- This district is trending Democratic, and in any other year incumbent Republican Pat Tiberi would be a target for replacement. The best the Democrats could do to challenge him, though, was a county commissioner. Leans R, but don't count on Tiberi to be completely invulnerable.
Dist. 14- Designed to be a safe Republican seat, but incumbent Steve LaTourette has been seeing that edge slip the past few election cycles. Unfortunately, the Democrats chose a rematch with the man LaTourette beat better than 60-40 in 2008- and though he might gain ground in better years, this time there's no chance in this lily-white exurban district. Solid R.
Dist. 15- Ohio seems to like rematches. In 2008 the Democrat beat the Republican by about 4,000 votes; this time it's the same two people, and in this swing district you have to bet on the Republican turning the tables. Lean R.
Dist. 16- Another freshman Democrat in trouble, facing a Republican rich enough to self-finance in a Republican-leaning district. Leans R.
Dist. 18- Bob Ney's old district. It went Democratic in 2006 when Ney went to the pokey, and stayed blue in the 2008 landslide. The incumbent is facing a Republican state senator in a year which is going to be rough on vulnerable Democrats- and doubly so on Democrats from coal country who voted for cap-and-trade. I'm calling this one Leans R.
STATE SCORE: D 6, R 12, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 158, R 146, 16 Tossup
OKLAHOMA- 5 seats
Short story even shorter- all incumbents (3 R, 1 D) stay in Districts 1-4.
District 5 has no incumbent, but the seat (and the state) is so overwhelmingly Republican that no Democrat can possibly swing this away from the GOP.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 4, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 159, R 150, 16 Tossup
OREGON- 5 seats
As Oklahoma, with the colors reversed.
District 5 is as close to an exception as there is, with freshman Kurt Schrader facing a Republican state representative. Even there, and even in a swing district, I can't call this anything less than Leans D.
STATE SCORE: D 4, R 1, 0 Tossup
Three quarters of the way through: D 163, R 151, 16 Tossup
NEBRASKA- 3 seats
Districts 1 and 3 are overwhelmingly Republican, with very weak Democratic candidates. District 2 has a serious Democratic challenger (a state senator) and gave one electoral vote to Obama in 2008 (barely)... but incumbent Lee Terry is popular and more sane than the average Republican in this day and age (not that that says much). All three Solid R.
STATE SCORE: D 0, R 3, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 113, R 112, 13 Tossup
NEVADA- 3 seats
District 1 is safe for the Democrats- really, GOP, nominating a bounty hunter? The Republicans are equally safe in District 2- the Democrats fielded only a middleweight candidate, and it's the most rural (and white) of the three districts.
District 3, deliberately drawn as a swing district, might swing again. Dana Titus is a freshman Democrat facing a middleweight Republican challenger (a physician and former state senator). She won in 2008 with less than 50% of the vote, so even without the backlash polling she's vulnerable. I'm calling this one at least a tossup.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 1, 1 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 114, R 113, 14 Tossup
NEW HAMPSHIRE- 2 seats
In the 1st District, incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter faces a number of Republican challengers ranging from laughable to middleweight-respectable. With incumbency and New England on her side, I think she's pretty safe. The 2nd has no incumbent, though, with Paul Hodes seeking the Senate. Republican Charlie Bass is seeking a return to the House, and to be honest I don't see either of the Democratic contenders being able to stop him in this environment- making that race Lean R in my book.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 1, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 115, R 114, 14 Tossup
NEW JERSEY- 13 seats
Weak challengers mean strong calls in Districts 1 (D), 2 (R), 7 (R), 8 (D), 9 (D), 11 (R), 12 (R), and 13 (D). Demographics put Districts 5 (R), 6 (D), and 10 (D). Chris Smith (R) has held the 4th District since 1981, and he's not likely to be shifted in this environment- also a strong call.
That leaves only one swing district- the 3rd, in which a freshman Democrat faces a former pro football player. John Adler (the Democrat) only won by about 52-48 despite outspending his opponent in 2008 by about eight to one. He's going to face someone who, as an NFL veteran, has some of the best credentials for conservatives that any neophyte politician could ask for. I'm calling this one Lean R- Adler's probably going to lose this one no matter how much he spends, unless Mr. Jon Runyan self-destructs somehow.
STATE SCORE: D 6, R 7, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 121, R 121, 14 Tossup
NEW MEXICO- 3 seats
All three of the seats are held by Democratic freshman, although the 3rd District has been held by Democrats for a very long time indeed. That seat is safe for the Democrats. The 1st District (Albuquerque) is a Lean D, with a somewhat weak Republican candidate in a slightly Democratic-leaning district. That leaves the 2nd District, which could otherwise be called Confederate New Mexico- the southern half of the state. Democrat Harry Teague faces former Rep Steve Pearce in that race, and to be honest Teague is so blue-dog that it doesn't matter much who wins. I'm calling this a Lean R, with the tiebreaking factor being the expected throw-the-bums-out vote.
STATE SCORE: D 2, R 1, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 123, R 122, 14 Tossup
NEW YORK- 29 seats
LOCKED:
1 Republican with Democratic opponent without website/organized campaign (26) - 1 total
3 Democrats with no opposition outside party (10, 12, 16), 1 Democrat with only third-party opposition (11), 1 Democrat with Republican opponent without website/organized campaign (7) - 5 total
STRONG:
Incumbent party with weak opposition: Dists. 2 (D), 3 (R), 5 (D), 9 (D), 15 (D), 17 (D), 18 (D), 21 (D), 22 (D), 27 (D), 28 (D)
Demographics/past results: Dists. 4 (D), 6 (D), 8 (D), 14 (D)
So... what have I got left? Districts 1, 13, 19, 20, 23, 24, 25 and 29. Let's take those in order, hm?
Although the 1st District is a swing district on paper (affluent, mostly white, mix of new suburban and old rural/maritime), in practice it's got a long-term incumbent Democrat in there and a trio of credible but less-than-impressive Republican challengers. (One of whom thinks putting the fact that he's Nixon's grandson on his resume is a good thing). Incumbency plus a lack of an outstanding Republican challenger puts this one in my Leans D list.
The 13th District is Staten Island- the conservative part of NYC. Freshman Michael McMahon has been embarrassing himself there, and it's not like he had much of a margin to work with- he was only elected on the strength of Vito Fossella's martial problems. Even with some fairly weak Republican opposition, I have to call this one Leans R.
The 19th is a swing district with a hint of Republican lean from the rural vote. The incumbent Democrat, John Hall, is a two-termer who first won in 2006 52-48 and was relected 58-42 in 2008. Absent Obama coattails (and possibly with Obama millstones), he's borderline if the Republicans put up a credible candidate. Neil DeCarlo might be that man, if he can self-finance. If DeCarlo doesn't win the nomination, Hall skates through. I call this one, for the time being, a Tossup.
Scott Murphy (D) required a recount to win the special election for District 20's seat- against a Republican carpet-bag candidate. He faces Chris Gibson in the regular election in November... and he's very, very vulnerable, even to a relative unknown like Gibson. Rank this one a Leans R, since dissatisfaction with Obama and Congress is going to hit Murphy despite his best efforts to blue-dog his way out of them.
Next, the 23rd District, which taught us all (briefly) how to spell Scozzafava. Bill Owens would have lost last winter's special election had the Republicans been united, had not certain national Republican figures decided to use this race to score points with the tea party crowd. And there's a chance it could happen again: the Conservative Party nominee who drove the Republican Scozzafava out of the race, out of her party, and likely out of politics is challenging again, seeking both Conservative and Republican nominations. Another Tossup for the pile, here- no way of knowing how this one is going to come out.
District 24 is a rematch from 2008, when incumbent Democrat Mike Arcuri beat Republican Richard Hanna by a slim margin. With Arcuri's blue-dog voting record sure to depress his base, the rematch should be a reversal of fortunes, with Hanna going to Washington and Arcuri going home. Leans R.
In the 25th, incumbent Democrat Dan Maffei faces an assistant state attorney general, Ann Marie Buerkle. She'll probably be a good candidate, but Maffei seems to have a magic touch- nearly unseating a long-time incumbent in 2006 before winning outright (and handily) in 2008. This one's at least a Lean D.
Finally, the 29th... Eric Massa's former seat. Yeeeeeeah. Even if the Democratic candidate wasn't a weak one, this one would be a Strong R.
STATE SCORE: D 21, R 6, 2 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 144, R 128, 16 Tossup
NORTH CAROLINA- 13 seats
LOCKED:
1 Republican with Democratic opponent without website/organized campaign (10) - 1 total
STRONG:
Incumbent party with weak opposition: Dists. 1 (D), 2 (D), 3 (R), 4 (D), 5 (R), 6 (R), 7 (D), 8 (D), 9 (R), 12 (D), 13 (D)
Really, the only race I see worth watching here is Heath Shuler's re-election bid for the 11th District. Shuler has proven almost as useless to the Democrats as to the Redskins and Saints. Only his overwhelming personal popularity in his home district (plus a massive war chest) makes this race a Leans D rather than a Tossup or even Leans R, in my book.
STATE SCORE: D 8, R 5, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 152, R 133, 16 Tossup
NORTH DAKOTA- 1 seat
Earl Pomeroy is that rare thing indeed- a Democratic representative from a one-rep red state. This time he's facing a real tough challenger in former State House Speaker Rick Berg, and he's going to be going to the polls with his patron Byron Dorgan retiring from the Senate. In the current environment- and especially considering that Berg is out-fundraising Pomeroy by a considerable margin- I think Pomeroy's out of a job. Leans R.
STATE SCORE: D 0, R 1, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 152, R 134, 16 Tossup
OHIO- 18 seats
LOCKED:
1 Republican with Democratic opponent without website/organized campaign (4) - 1 total
1 Democrat with Republican opponent without website/organized campaign (11) - 1 total
STRONG:
Incumbent party with weak opposition: Dists. 2 (R), 3 (R), 5 (R), 7 (R), 9 (D), 10 (D), 13 (D), 17 (D)
Demographics/past results: Dists. 8 (R)
Battleground state ahoy.
Dist. 1- Cincinnati, a true swing district. Democrat Steve Driehause and Republican Steve Chabot are in a rematch. Driehouse beat Chabot pretty narrowly in 2008; Chabot had held the seat for multiple terms before then. In the current political environment I look for Chabot to take back his seat. Leans R.
Dist. 6- A predominantly rural, poor, white, semi-Appalachian district (bordering the Ohio River, anyway), it's something of a miracle that the Democrats have held it for the past decade. It looks like the miracles continue, since incumbent Charlie Wilson (no, not that one) has drawn a tax protester for his Republican opponent. Lean D, but this race will be interesting to watch just to see how strong the tea party really is.
Dist. 12- This district is trending Democratic, and in any other year incumbent Republican Pat Tiberi would be a target for replacement. The best the Democrats could do to challenge him, though, was a county commissioner. Leans R, but don't count on Tiberi to be completely invulnerable.
Dist. 14- Designed to be a safe Republican seat, but incumbent Steve LaTourette has been seeing that edge slip the past few election cycles. Unfortunately, the Democrats chose a rematch with the man LaTourette beat better than 60-40 in 2008- and though he might gain ground in better years, this time there's no chance in this lily-white exurban district. Solid R.
Dist. 15- Ohio seems to like rematches. In 2008 the Democrat beat the Republican by about 4,000 votes; this time it's the same two people, and in this swing district you have to bet on the Republican turning the tables. Lean R.
Dist. 16- Another freshman Democrat in trouble, facing a Republican rich enough to self-finance in a Republican-leaning district. Leans R.
Dist. 18- Bob Ney's old district. It went Democratic in 2006 when Ney went to the pokey, and stayed blue in the 2008 landslide. The incumbent is facing a Republican state senator in a year which is going to be rough on vulnerable Democrats- and doubly so on Democrats from coal country who voted for cap-and-trade. I'm calling this one Leans R.
STATE SCORE: D 6, R 12, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 158, R 146, 16 Tossup
OKLAHOMA- 5 seats
Short story even shorter- all incumbents (3 R, 1 D) stay in Districts 1-4.
District 5 has no incumbent, but the seat (and the state) is so overwhelmingly Republican that no Democrat can possibly swing this away from the GOP.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 4, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 159, R 150, 16 Tossup
OREGON- 5 seats
As Oklahoma, with the colors reversed.
District 5 is as close to an exception as there is, with freshman Kurt Schrader facing a Republican state representative. Even there, and even in a swing district, I can't call this anything less than Leans D.
STATE SCORE: D 4, R 1, 0 Tossup
Three quarters of the way through: D 163, R 151, 16 Tossup
