redneckgaijin | Stupid Movie... but Not Impossible

bar1scorpio mentioned the upcoming Kevin Costner vehicle, Swing Vote, to me as a movie that apparently requires total ignorance of the electoral process on the part of the movie watcher.

And it probably does... but it's not totally impossible. The key, though, is that our common schlub can't be an ordinary voter, but a presidential elector.

New Mexico (the setting of the above movie) picks its electors according to the vote of the people (as do all states, at present). The candidate who gets the most votes gets all of the electoral votes- which means that party's entire slate of electors gets picked, with no exceptions.

But there are two states- Nebraska and Maine- that split up their electors. Both Nebraska and Maine award two electors based on the statewide vote, and then one elector each based on the outcome of the vote in each Congressional district.

Now, suppose a third-party or independent candidate manages, barely, to win the vote in one congressional district in either of those states without winning the overall statewide vote. (Nebraska is the more probable in this case, since we only want ONE electoral vote tied up this way. Nebraska has three Congressional districts, Maine two.)

Now, suppose that one of the main party electors announces openly that they will cast a blank ballot. Possibly they could just die between election day and the electoral ballot, but I should expect there to be laws in most states allowing parties to replace lost electors.

Now, you have one main-party elector who won't vote and won't move. You have one third-party elector whose candidate cannot possibly be elected.

Split the remaining electors absolutely evenly- this CAN be done, oh yes- and you have Mr. X 269, Mr. Y 269, and Third Party Man 1.

If this was the actual vote cast by the electors when the time comes, then the Presidential election would be thrown into the House of Representatives. The Constitution requires that the President receive a clear majority of all electoral votes cast- including blank ballots. If it goes to the House, each state, regardless of size, gets 1 vote- most states wins.

That third party man would, in this case, have the power to pick either major party candidate and anoint him the winner. Both candidates would try like hell to win him over- even if one candidate could rely on winning the vote in the House, he wouldn't want to take a chance on his opponent getting that last vote and keeping it out of the House.

So yes, having a single man's vote decide the matter is possible.

Of course, it happened in 2000- but the single man, in that case, was Chief Justice William Appointed-By-Nixon Rhenquist...