Stupor Bowl: Looking ahead a bit

[redneckgaijin]

So, what's to look forward to (or, more likely, avert eyes from)?

1. RICE (Conference USA) (0-9)
Stats: winless, one close loss, weak schedule, Point Margin -41.3, Yardage Margin -151.9.
Remaining games: Saturday v. Tulane, 11/20 v. UTEP, 11/27 at Houston.

The Owls retain the inside track for the Stupor Bowl. No other team in the BCS part of Division I football has given up over forty points more than scored per game. No other team has so few excuses. And no other team seems less likely to win one of their remaining games. Hell, the Houston Cougars are already dusting off the spot in the trophy case where the Bayou Bucket will no doubt return. If they don't find luck this week against Tulane, forget it.

The other three unvictorious teams are much of a sameness, and any one of the three is currently worthy of a Stupor Bowl berth:

2. EASTERN MICHIGAN (MAC - West) (0-9)
Stats: winless, two close losses, weak schedule, Point Margin -23.1, Yardage Margin -170.6.
Remaining games: Saturday v. Western Michigan, 11/20 at Toledo, 11/27 at Akron.
Tiebreaking factor: Lost to Ball State (see below).

3. NEW MEXICO (Mountain West) (0-9)
Stats: winless, two close losses, strong schedule, Point Margin -21.3, Yardage Margin -120.
Remaining games: Saturday v. 22 Brigham Young, 11/21 vs. Colorado State, 11/28 at 4 TCU.
Tiebreaking factor: coach was suspended for ten days for fistfight with assistants.

4. WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt) (0-9)
Stats: winless, one close loss, VERY weak schedule, Point Margin -24.2, Yardage Margin -194.4.
Remaining games: Saturday at Louisiana-Monroe, 11/28 at Florida Atlantic, 12/3 vs. Arkansas State.
Tiebreaking factor: First year in Div. I-A; Head coach just fired this week after 17 game losing streak

Of the three, New Mexico is the most likely to go without a win, with their last realistic chance against 3-6 Colorado State. Eastern Michigan has a bit of a chance for a last-game reprieve- remember, if you win your final game of the year you're not Stupor Bowl eligible. Western Kentucky, though, has the weakest schedule of the three- its last two games are against teams who, three weeks ago, were both Stupor Bowl contenders. If Western Kentucky loses all its games, the Hilltoppers join the Owls in the Stupor Bowl.

Now for the one-win wonders (we wonder how they got that win), who come into play if any of the above win their last game or manage to string together two wins:

5. MIAMI (OHIO) (MAC - East) (1-9)
Stats: 1 win (4-6 Toledo), two close losses, weak schedule, Point Margin -17.7, Yardage Margin -33.1.
Remaining games: Tonight v. Bowling Green, 11/18 vs. Buffalo.

The last three weeks Miami has improved considerably- its one win and two close losses all come in that period. Bowling Green and Buffalo are both vulnerable, so they might make it off the list before it's over.
EDIT: Bowling Green not so vulnerable: Miami lost 35-14.

6. BALL STATE (MAC - West) (1-8)
Stats: 1 win (0-9 Eastern Michigan), five close losses, VERY weak schedule, Point Margin -8.3, Yardage Margin -72.7.
Remaining games: Tonight at Northern Illinois, 11/18 vs. Central Michigan, 11/24 at Western Michigan.

These stats are misleading, a product of an excruciatingly easy schedule squandered. Today likely won't go well, but the last two games are quite possibly winnable... by any team that's not Ball State.
EDIT: Ball State did surprisingly well against NIU. Saw part of that game; mainly Ball State killed themselves on stupid, STUPID penalties. Lost 26-20.

7. SAN JOSE STATE (WAC)
Stats: 1 win (I-AA Cal Poly), one close loss, strong schedule, Point Margin -24.4, Yardage Margin -203.4.
Remaining games: Saturday at Utah State , 11/21 vs. Hawaii, 11/28 vs. New Mexico State, 12/5 at Louisiana Tech.

Utah State found a second victory and got off this list. Still, Saturday's game might be the closest we get to a true Stupor Bowl (well, the closest those of us who didn't see Ball State play Eastern Michigan could get). San Jose would be higher on this list... if the other one win teams above it weren't Miami of Ohio and Ball State.

8. WASHINGTON STATE (Pac 10) (1-8)
Stats: 1 win (5-4 SMU), no close losses, VERY strong schedule, Point Margin -24.5, Yardage Margin -234.8.
Remaining games: Saturday vs. UCLA, 11/21 vs. Oregon State, 11/28 at Washington.

Yes, their stats are horrible. Still... the Pac 10 currently has FOUR ranked teams. Stanford plays well enough that, if they played anywhere other than the Pac 10, they'd likely be ranked too. You have to adjust for such a horribly strong schedule, which is why the Cougars aren't higher on this list.


So- I wonder if I can find any of these games on TV anywhere at all? Doubt it...