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redneckgaijinFor the Dems, that is- nothing I've seen today shows any movement to speak of on the Republican side, except possibly to solidify McCain's lead.
A flood of new polls, decidedly a mixed bag...
... but trending more or less Obama-ward. New guesstimateClinton 892, Obama 786 Clinton 888, Obama 790 on Tuesday.
Looking at the back end of the polls, certain stats are rather grim for the Obama campaign. Overall the trend seems to be that most Edwards supporters are going over to Obama. Unfortunately, the exception is the South, where Edwards' support was lily-white... and most of those are going over to Hillary. Obama's gains in the south are solely on the black vote leaving Hillary.
I'm debating whether or not to actually go through all the Democrat primaries as I did with the Republicans, nail down the mechanisms used to distribute delegates, and work out a more accurate estimate. I haven't done it because there's only two viable Democratic candidates left, because most polls don't break down by Congressional district or even region, and because it'd be a lot of work. About the best I can do is list what states I'm calling for who at this point:
CLINTON WINS: American Samoa, Delaware, New Mexico, Utah, Arizona, Minnesota,Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee. (10 states)
OBAMA WINS: Alaska, Kansas, North Dakota, Idaho, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois (7 states)
TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Democrats Abroad, Alabama, California, Connecticut, Massachusetts. Missouri. (6 states)
It looks like it's going to be VERY close on Tuesday. I'm rooting for an Obama upset.
Edit: A reader let me know I had the numbers backwards on the new Connecticut poll, hence the correction. Also, a new Missouri poll released just after I posted shows Clinton and Obama within that poll's margin of error- Clinton up by four points. Tighter and tighter it becomes...
A flood of new polls, decidedly a mixed bag...
... but trending more or less Obama-ward. New guesstimate
Looking at the back end of the polls, certain stats are rather grim for the Obama campaign. Overall the trend seems to be that most Edwards supporters are going over to Obama. Unfortunately, the exception is the South, where Edwards' support was lily-white... and most of those are going over to Hillary. Obama's gains in the south are solely on the black vote leaving Hillary.
I'm debating whether or not to actually go through all the Democrat primaries as I did with the Republicans, nail down the mechanisms used to distribute delegates, and work out a more accurate estimate. I haven't done it because there's only two viable Democratic candidates left, because most polls don't break down by Congressional district or even region, and because it'd be a lot of work. About the best I can do is list what states I'm calling for who at this point:
CLINTON WINS: American Samoa, Delaware, New Mexico, Utah, Arizona, Minnesota,
OBAMA WINS: Alaska, Kansas, North Dakota, Idaho, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois (7 states)
TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Democrats Abroad, Alabama, California, Connecticut, Massachusetts. Missouri. (6 states)
It looks like it's going to be VERY close on Tuesday. I'm rooting for an Obama upset.
Edit: A reader let me know I had the numbers backwards on the new Connecticut poll, hence the correction. Also, a new Missouri poll released just after I posted shows Clinton and Obama within that poll's margin of error- Clinton up by four points. Tighter and tighter it becomes...
