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redneckgaijinThere's talk about getting a 60 vote Democratic majority in the US Senate.
Now, counting independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman, the Democrats currently hold the Senate 51-49. Most pundits are assuming that Lieberman, despite his speech at the GOP convention and his loud and loyal support for John McCain, will remain aligned with the Democrats in the next Congress. My personal bet is that Lieberman gets told politely come Jan. 3 to decide who his friends really are, and that Lieberman will declare as a Republican- so that takes the count to 50-50 to begin with. The Democrats need a pickup of ten seats total to get a filibuster-proof Senate.
At this point we can be pretty much certain of four Democratic pickups. The Republicans have fielded second-string opposition and negligible material support in three contested races- John Warner's vacant seat in Virginia (he's retiring) and the Udall brothers' Democratic runs for Senate in New Mexico and Colorado. Mark Warner is cruising to victory in his race to replace his unrelated namesake. Add to this New Hampshire, where Junior Sununu is getting his ass handed to him by Jeanne Shaheen, and that takes the balance to 54-46. Six to go.
The rest of the six, though, are not going to be so easy. Here's the breakdown.
55. NORTH CAROLINA - Elizabeth Dole, wife of 1996 GOP Prez candidate Bob Dole, seemed safe and secure as recently as three months ago. A combination of aggressive advertising by Democratic candidate Kay Hagan and the economic downturn has changed that- to the point that the last three polls released on the race show Dole marginally behind. Barring either a massive silent "Nobama" vote with coattails or some economic miracle, the Dems probably pick this one up.
56. OREGON - Republican Gordon Smith is one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate- and a significant possibility to cross party lines to break a filibuster in any case. That said, he's having very serious difficulty with State Senate leader Jeff Merkley. Even if the Dems lose this race- and right now they're narrowly ahead- they'll have Smith on their side now and again.
57. ALASKA - Ted Stevens today wrapped up his testimony and cross-examination in his own corruption trial. That, plus the Bridge to Nowhere, has him in a statistical tie with his opponent, Marc Begich. The only reason it's a tie is Sarah Palin's VP candidacy; Palin is still very popular in Alaska despite her own corruption investigations, and took Alaska from a battleground state back into McCain-safe territory. The outcome of this race will essentially depend on whether the verdict that comes in is innocent or guilty.
Now we get into territory where the Democrats will need help, and lots of it, to get any further gains:
58? MINNESOTA - Norm Coleman barely defeated a dead man for his seat- he won election when his incumbent opponent Paul Wellstone died in that airplane crash. (On paper, his final opponent was former VP Walter Mondale- so, he beat one dead man and one nearly dead man, but barely.) He should have been seen as eminently vulnerable... but the best the Democrats could come up with was Al Franken. Al Franken, who wasn't even really funny on SNL, much less Air America. Franken was hopelessly behind until the past month or so, when the economy finally caught up to the Republicans; now Franklin and Coleman are tied, with a third-party candidate polling about 5% of the vote.
59? MISSISSIPPI SPECIAL ELECTION - Trent Lott resigned so he could become a lobbyist a year early. Republican Roger Wicker was appointed to the vacancy, but now he has to defend his appointment in a special election against former governor Ronnie Musgrove. As of this writing Musgrove is substantially behind, and will need serious help indeed to win.
60? GEORGIA - Saxby Chambliss won his seat in 2002 by portraying his opponent- a Vietnam veteran with three amputated limbs and a long legislative history of supporting veterans and soldiers- as unAmerican. He's now facing another Vietnam vet- Jim Martin- in a state which, although still quite red, has drifted significantly blue as more people move to Atlanta. Chambliss still holds a lead, but it's a narrow one... and the Democrats are pouring money into Martin's heretofore underfunded campaign. The question is, are they too late? The Republicans are pouring their own money in now, too.
61? KENTUCKY - Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell... well, he's the Senate Minority Leader, and that probably explains why two polls in the past month have showed him statstically tied with Bruce Lundsford, a man best known for losing twice in gubernatorial races (2003 and 2007). No public polling has been posted in the past two weeks, so the best knowledge we currently have is of September polls that averaged McConnell with a five point lead. The Republicans are going to fight like hell to keep McConnell in the Senate...
62? TEXAS - And ending on the longest shot... but one that might pay off. Republican John Cornyn is not only unpopular among many Texans, he's unpopular among his colleagues for being possibly the biggest supporter George W. Bush has. Only that can explain how, in a state McCain is predicted to carry by double digits, against a candidate (State Rep. Rick Noriega) who can at best be described as second-string, Cornyn only holds a single-digit lead. Noriega still needs some major help to upset Cornyn- but it's just barely within the realm of possibility at this point.
And that's it- every other Republican seat is nailed down solid, with polls showing not less than a 12% advantage over the Democratic opponent (if any).
So, of the ten seats needed for a filibuster-proof majority, the Democrats have four for certain; three more are better than 50% probabilities; but in order to make it the rest of the way they have to take three out of five in which they are still behind.
My prediction? Dems fall just short- 59 seats, NOT counting Lieberman.
Lieberman could make 60, but given the choice between bribing him with a committee chairmanship and other perqs or handing him his walking papers, I'd settle for an almost filibuster-proof majority.
Now, counting independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman, the Democrats currently hold the Senate 51-49. Most pundits are assuming that Lieberman, despite his speech at the GOP convention and his loud and loyal support for John McCain, will remain aligned with the Democrats in the next Congress. My personal bet is that Lieberman gets told politely come Jan. 3 to decide who his friends really are, and that Lieberman will declare as a Republican- so that takes the count to 50-50 to begin with. The Democrats need a pickup of ten seats total to get a filibuster-proof Senate.
At this point we can be pretty much certain of four Democratic pickups. The Republicans have fielded second-string opposition and negligible material support in three contested races- John Warner's vacant seat in Virginia (he's retiring) and the Udall brothers' Democratic runs for Senate in New Mexico and Colorado. Mark Warner is cruising to victory in his race to replace his unrelated namesake. Add to this New Hampshire, where Junior Sununu is getting his ass handed to him by Jeanne Shaheen, and that takes the balance to 54-46. Six to go.
The rest of the six, though, are not going to be so easy. Here's the breakdown.
55. NORTH CAROLINA - Elizabeth Dole, wife of 1996 GOP Prez candidate Bob Dole, seemed safe and secure as recently as three months ago. A combination of aggressive advertising by Democratic candidate Kay Hagan and the economic downturn has changed that- to the point that the last three polls released on the race show Dole marginally behind. Barring either a massive silent "Nobama" vote with coattails or some economic miracle, the Dems probably pick this one up.
56. OREGON - Republican Gordon Smith is one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate- and a significant possibility to cross party lines to break a filibuster in any case. That said, he's having very serious difficulty with State Senate leader Jeff Merkley. Even if the Dems lose this race- and right now they're narrowly ahead- they'll have Smith on their side now and again.
57. ALASKA - Ted Stevens today wrapped up his testimony and cross-examination in his own corruption trial. That, plus the Bridge to Nowhere, has him in a statistical tie with his opponent, Marc Begich. The only reason it's a tie is Sarah Palin's VP candidacy; Palin is still very popular in Alaska despite her own corruption investigations, and took Alaska from a battleground state back into McCain-safe territory. The outcome of this race will essentially depend on whether the verdict that comes in is innocent or guilty.
Now we get into territory where the Democrats will need help, and lots of it, to get any further gains:
58? MINNESOTA - Norm Coleman barely defeated a dead man for his seat- he won election when his incumbent opponent Paul Wellstone died in that airplane crash. (On paper, his final opponent was former VP Walter Mondale- so, he beat one dead man and one nearly dead man, but barely.) He should have been seen as eminently vulnerable... but the best the Democrats could come up with was Al Franken. Al Franken, who wasn't even really funny on SNL, much less Air America. Franken was hopelessly behind until the past month or so, when the economy finally caught up to the Republicans; now Franklin and Coleman are tied, with a third-party candidate polling about 5% of the vote.
59? MISSISSIPPI SPECIAL ELECTION - Trent Lott resigned so he could become a lobbyist a year early. Republican Roger Wicker was appointed to the vacancy, but now he has to defend his appointment in a special election against former governor Ronnie Musgrove. As of this writing Musgrove is substantially behind, and will need serious help indeed to win.
60? GEORGIA - Saxby Chambliss won his seat in 2002 by portraying his opponent- a Vietnam veteran with three amputated limbs and a long legislative history of supporting veterans and soldiers- as unAmerican. He's now facing another Vietnam vet- Jim Martin- in a state which, although still quite red, has drifted significantly blue as more people move to Atlanta. Chambliss still holds a lead, but it's a narrow one... and the Democrats are pouring money into Martin's heretofore underfunded campaign. The question is, are they too late? The Republicans are pouring their own money in now, too.
61? KENTUCKY - Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell... well, he's the Senate Minority Leader, and that probably explains why two polls in the past month have showed him statstically tied with Bruce Lundsford, a man best known for losing twice in gubernatorial races (2003 and 2007). No public polling has been posted in the past two weeks, so the best knowledge we currently have is of September polls that averaged McConnell with a five point lead. The Republicans are going to fight like hell to keep McConnell in the Senate...
62? TEXAS - And ending on the longest shot... but one that might pay off. Republican John Cornyn is not only unpopular among many Texans, he's unpopular among his colleagues for being possibly the biggest supporter George W. Bush has. Only that can explain how, in a state McCain is predicted to carry by double digits, against a candidate (State Rep. Rick Noriega) who can at best be described as second-string, Cornyn only holds a single-digit lead. Noriega still needs some major help to upset Cornyn- but it's just barely within the realm of possibility at this point.
And that's it- every other Republican seat is nailed down solid, with polls showing not less than a 12% advantage over the Democratic opponent (if any).
So, of the ten seats needed for a filibuster-proof majority, the Democrats have four for certain; three more are better than 50% probabilities; but in order to make it the rest of the way they have to take three out of five in which they are still behind.
My prediction? Dems fall just short- 59 seats, NOT counting Lieberman.
Lieberman could make 60, but given the choice between bribing him with a committee chairmanship and other perqs or handing him his walking papers, I'd settle for an almost filibuster-proof majority.
