Only one incumbent running for re-election- a Democrat against a former Miss Arkansas. Drop that in the Strong D.
The 3rd District is the northwest- Walton territory, Bentonville, etc. Extremely Republican, so Mayor Steve Womack (R) is almost certain to defeat David Whitaker- Strong R.
District 2 centers on Little Rock and is about as close as Democrats have to safe territory. With a state senator running against a Karl Rove henchman, I'd have to call that Lean D- but no better than that.
Finally, the 1st District, northwest Arkansas. Formerly a swing district, but went 2-1 for McCain in 2008. The Democrat incumbent is retiring, and his replacement nominee is his young chief of staff... running against a farm radio host and organizer on the Republican side. I score this one Strong R on candidate mismatch, election trend and local demographic trend."
This is a failure by you to understand Arkansas politics. Here in Arkansas, Republicans are not the friends of Big Business in Arkansas, Democrats are and always have been. In Arkansas, voting never falls along Democrat/Republican lines. They fall along Rural/Urban lines, and in almost every case, you still wind up voting for a Democrat. From the county level up, you have Democrats in nearly every elected office in the state.
1st District (Northeast Arkansas, my home territory): Berry's boy Chad Cause will most likely win the day since he's Berry's hand-picked successor. In spite of moments of stupidity on Berry's part, he's done a lot for the farmers in the district, and they remember that when they go to polls.
2nd District (Central Arkansas): As sad as it is to say out loud in this day and age, I fear Elliot's skin color will affect her more than anything else.
3rd District (Northwest Arkansas): I disagree and say Whitaker will win since Democrats are friends of Arkansas Big Business (especially Wal-Mart and Tyson).
4th District (Southern Arkansas): Ross would have to be found with a dead hooker and be covered in her blood to lose his seat.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2010-08-21 07:20 pm (UTC)Only one incumbent running for re-election- a Democrat against a former Miss Arkansas. Drop that in the Strong D.
The 3rd District is the northwest- Walton territory, Bentonville, etc. Extremely Republican, so Mayor Steve Womack (R) is almost certain to defeat David Whitaker- Strong R.
District 2 centers on Little Rock and is about as close as Democrats have to safe territory. With a state senator running against a Karl Rove henchman, I'd have to call that Lean D- but no better than that.
Finally, the 1st District, northwest Arkansas. Formerly a swing district, but went 2-1 for McCain in 2008. The Democrat incumbent is retiring, and his replacement nominee is his young chief of staff... running against a farm radio host and organizer on the Republican side. I score this one Strong R on candidate mismatch, election trend and local demographic trend."
This is a failure by you to understand Arkansas politics. Here in Arkansas, Republicans are not the friends of Big Business in Arkansas, Democrats are and always have been. In Arkansas, voting never falls along Democrat/Republican lines. They fall along Rural/Urban lines, and in almost every case, you still wind up voting for a Democrat. From the county level up, you have Democrats in nearly every elected office in the state.
1st District (Northeast Arkansas, my home territory): Berry's boy Chad Cause will most likely win the day since he's Berry's hand-picked successor. In spite of moments of stupidity on Berry's part, he's done a lot for the farmers in the district, and they remember that when they go to polls.
2nd District (Central Arkansas): As sad as it is to say out loud in this day and age, I fear Elliot's skin color will affect her more than anything else.
3rd District (Northwest Arkansas): I disagree and say Whitaker will win since Democrats are friends of Arkansas Big Business (especially Wal-Mart and Tyson).
4th District (Southern Arkansas): Ross would have to be found with a dead hooker and be covered in her blood to lose his seat.