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Libertarian leaders make two unanimous votes, while Nancy Pelosi failed to object to CIA torture in 2002 before it began.
Very much looking forward to the 18th, now.
Very much looking forward to the 18th, now.
Dec. 9th, 2007
Libertarian leaders make two unanimous votes, while Nancy Pelosi failed to object to CIA torture in 2002 before it began.
Very much looking forward to the 18th, now.
Very much looking forward to the 18th, now.
Another Boring Sports Post...
Dec. 9th, 2007 02:53 pm... NFL this time.
One of the factors I used in the Stupor Bowl this year was "near losses." Near losses are losses by eight points or less- where one more or one less score could have changed the outcome of the game into a win for the team in question.
Yesterday I was listening to yet another commentator anointing the New England Patriots as the best football team ever to take the turf, destined to go undefeated straight to the Super Bowl. I then thought: Yes, but there are some one-loss and two-loss teams who might have something to say about that. How dominating are the teams... really?
And the answer is, of course, "How many games were close?"
So I'm going to try an experiment. Ignoring those of today's games which have already ended (including the Texans, who upset Tampa Bay 28-14, yay!), I'll take the records of all 32 NFL teams this year and, instead of going by a single win-loss stat, I'm going to give them a range. The lower end of the range will be the team's number of wins if every close game went AGAINST them; the upper end of the range will be the team's number of wins if every close game went FOR them. The number in the center of the range will be, for purposes of this experiment, the true strength rating of the team; low is for losers, high is for winners.
I predict, before I start juggling numbers, that this will have the effect of bringing sky-high teams like the Patriots and Packers down, and lifting abysmal teams like the Dolphins up. (Well, not much in the case of Miami, but...) This isn't a bad thing- after all, as the saying goes, on Any Given Sunday Any NFL Team Can Beat Any Other NFL Team. They're -supposed- to be close.
Anyhow, let's get started...
( The only really astounding development here is that Miami's rank score actually beats out San Francisco... )
( The system confirms what we already knew, re: the playoff picture... )
( Playoff matchups continue the blindingly obvious... )
More to the point, the system does not actually change any positions- they pretty much line up with the actual win-loss record. The exceptions- for example, saying that the 0-12 Miami Dolphins might be better than the 3-9 San Francisco Giants- are generally in the bottom half of the standings.
I'll try this again at the end of the regular season- both to see how well this holds up, and to see what, if anything, shifts in which teams the experiment favors. For now, though, this feels a bit like I'm chasing up a dead-end here; the dominant teams, and especially New England, really are just that dominant.
(But I will say this much: any game that says "too close to call," bet on whichever team the bookies give points; and bet against New England minus the spread on any game they're not heavily favored to win.)
One of the factors I used in the Stupor Bowl this year was "near losses." Near losses are losses by eight points or less- where one more or one less score could have changed the outcome of the game into a win for the team in question.
Yesterday I was listening to yet another commentator anointing the New England Patriots as the best football team ever to take the turf, destined to go undefeated straight to the Super Bowl. I then thought: Yes, but there are some one-loss and two-loss teams who might have something to say about that. How dominating are the teams... really?
And the answer is, of course, "How many games were close?"
So I'm going to try an experiment. Ignoring those of today's games which have already ended (including the Texans, who upset Tampa Bay 28-14, yay!), I'll take the records of all 32 NFL teams this year and, instead of going by a single win-loss stat, I'm going to give them a range. The lower end of the range will be the team's number of wins if every close game went AGAINST them; the upper end of the range will be the team's number of wins if every close game went FOR them. The number in the center of the range will be, for purposes of this experiment, the true strength rating of the team; low is for losers, high is for winners.
I predict, before I start juggling numbers, that this will have the effect of bringing sky-high teams like the Patriots and Packers down, and lifting abysmal teams like the Dolphins up. (Well, not much in the case of Miami, but...) This isn't a bad thing- after all, as the saying goes, on Any Given Sunday Any NFL Team Can Beat Any Other NFL Team. They're -supposed- to be close.
Anyhow, let's get started...
( The only really astounding development here is that Miami's rank score actually beats out San Francisco... )
( The system confirms what we already knew, re: the playoff picture... )
( Playoff matchups continue the blindingly obvious... )
More to the point, the system does not actually change any positions- they pretty much line up with the actual win-loss record. The exceptions- for example, saying that the 0-12 Miami Dolphins might be better than the 3-9 San Francisco Giants- are generally in the bottom half of the standings.
I'll try this again at the end of the regular season- both to see how well this holds up, and to see what, if anything, shifts in which teams the experiment favors. For now, though, this feels a bit like I'm chasing up a dead-end here; the dominant teams, and especially New England, really are just that dominant.
(But I will say this much: any game that says "too close to call," bet on whichever team the bookies give points; and bet against New England minus the spread on any game they're not heavily favored to win.)
Another Boring Sports Post...
Dec. 9th, 2007 02:53 pm... NFL this time.
One of the factors I used in the Stupor Bowl this year was "near losses." Near losses are losses by eight points or less- where one more or one less score could have changed the outcome of the game into a win for the team in question.
Yesterday I was listening to yet another commentator anointing the New England Patriots as the best football team ever to take the turf, destined to go undefeated straight to the Super Bowl. I then thought: Yes, but there are some one-loss and two-loss teams who might have something to say about that. How dominating are the teams... really?
And the answer is, of course, "How many games were close?"
So I'm going to try an experiment. Ignoring those of today's games which have already ended (including the Texans, who upset Tampa Bay 28-14, yay!), I'll take the records of all 32 NFL teams this year and, instead of going by a single win-loss stat, I'm going to give them a range. The lower end of the range will be the team's number of wins if every close game went AGAINST them; the upper end of the range will be the team's number of wins if every close game went FOR them. The number in the center of the range will be, for purposes of this experiment, the true strength rating of the team; low is for losers, high is for winners.
I predict, before I start juggling numbers, that this will have the effect of bringing sky-high teams like the Patriots and Packers down, and lifting abysmal teams like the Dolphins up. (Well, not much in the case of Miami, but...) This isn't a bad thing- after all, as the saying goes, on Any Given Sunday Any NFL Team Can Beat Any Other NFL Team. They're -supposed- to be close.
Anyhow, let's get started...
( The only really astounding development here is that Miami's rank score actually beats out San Francisco... )
( The system confirms what we already knew, re: the playoff picture... )
( Playoff matchups continue the blindingly obvious... )
More to the point, the system does not actually change any positions- they pretty much line up with the actual win-loss record. The exceptions- for example, saying that the 0-12 Miami Dolphins might be better than the 3-9 San Francisco Giants- are generally in the bottom half of the standings.
I'll try this again at the end of the regular season- both to see how well this holds up, and to see what, if anything, shifts in which teams the experiment favors. For now, though, this feels a bit like I'm chasing up a dead-end here; the dominant teams, and especially New England, really are just that dominant.
(But I will say this much: any game that says "too close to call," bet on whichever team the bookies give points; and bet against New England minus the spread on any game they're not heavily favored to win.)
One of the factors I used in the Stupor Bowl this year was "near losses." Near losses are losses by eight points or less- where one more or one less score could have changed the outcome of the game into a win for the team in question.
Yesterday I was listening to yet another commentator anointing the New England Patriots as the best football team ever to take the turf, destined to go undefeated straight to the Super Bowl. I then thought: Yes, but there are some one-loss and two-loss teams who might have something to say about that. How dominating are the teams... really?
And the answer is, of course, "How many games were close?"
So I'm going to try an experiment. Ignoring those of today's games which have already ended (including the Texans, who upset Tampa Bay 28-14, yay!), I'll take the records of all 32 NFL teams this year and, instead of going by a single win-loss stat, I'm going to give them a range. The lower end of the range will be the team's number of wins if every close game went AGAINST them; the upper end of the range will be the team's number of wins if every close game went FOR them. The number in the center of the range will be, for purposes of this experiment, the true strength rating of the team; low is for losers, high is for winners.
I predict, before I start juggling numbers, that this will have the effect of bringing sky-high teams like the Patriots and Packers down, and lifting abysmal teams like the Dolphins up. (Well, not much in the case of Miami, but...) This isn't a bad thing- after all, as the saying goes, on Any Given Sunday Any NFL Team Can Beat Any Other NFL Team. They're -supposed- to be close.
Anyhow, let's get started...
( The only really astounding development here is that Miami's rank score actually beats out San Francisco... )
( The system confirms what we already knew, re: the playoff picture... )
( Playoff matchups continue the blindingly obvious... )
More to the point, the system does not actually change any positions- they pretty much line up with the actual win-loss record. The exceptions- for example, saying that the 0-12 Miami Dolphins might be better than the 3-9 San Francisco Giants- are generally in the bottom half of the standings.
I'll try this again at the end of the regular season- both to see how well this holds up, and to see what, if anything, shifts in which teams the experiment favors. For now, though, this feels a bit like I'm chasing up a dead-end here; the dominant teams, and especially New England, really are just that dominant.
(But I will say this much: any game that says "too close to call," bet on whichever team the bookies give points; and bet against New England minus the spread on any game they're not heavily favored to win.)