Another Boring Sports Post...
Dec. 9th, 2007 02:53 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
redneckgaijin... NFL this time.
One of the factors I used in the Stupor Bowl this year was "near losses." Near losses are losses by eight points or less- where one more or one less score could have changed the outcome of the game into a win for the team in question.
Yesterday I was listening to yet another commentator anointing the New England Patriots as the best football team ever to take the turf, destined to go undefeated straight to the Super Bowl. I then thought: Yes, but there are some one-loss and two-loss teams who might have something to say about that. How dominating are the teams... really?
And the answer is, of course, "How many games were close?"
So I'm going to try an experiment. Ignoring those of today's games which have already ended (including the Texans, who upset Tampa Bay 28-14, yay!), I'll take the records of all 32 NFL teams this year and, instead of going by a single win-loss stat, I'm going to give them a range. The lower end of the range will be the team's number of wins if every close game went AGAINST them; the upper end of the range will be the team's number of wins if every close game went FOR them. The number in the center of the range will be, for purposes of this experiment, the true strength rating of the team; low is for losers, high is for winners.
I predict, before I start juggling numbers, that this will have the effect of bringing sky-high teams like the Patriots and Packers down, and lifting abysmal teams like the Dolphins up. (Well, not much in the case of Miami, but...) This isn't a bad thing- after all, as the saying goes, on Any Given Sunday Any NFL Team Can Beat Any Other NFL Team. They're -supposed- to be close.
Anyhow, let's get started...
NFC EAST DIVISION
Dallas (11-1) - high 11, low 9, rank 10
NY Giants (8-4) - high 8, low 4, rank 6
Washington (5-7 not counting Thurs. night) - high 10, low 1, rank 5.5
Philadelphia (5-7) - high 10, low 2, rank 6
NFC NORTH DIVISION
Green Bay (10-2) - high 11, low 5, rank 8
Detroit (6-6) - high 7, low 4, rank 5.5
Minnesota (6-6) - high 10, low 4, rank 7
Chicago (5-7 not counting Thurs. night) - high 9, low 2, rank 5.5
NFC SOUTH DIVISION
Tampa Bay (8-4) - high 10, low 4, rank 7
Carolina (5-7) - high 6, low 3, rank 4.5
New Orleans (5-7) - high 8, low 4, rank 6
Atlanta (3-9) - high 6, low 1, rank 3.5
NFC WEST DIVISION
Seattle (8-4) - high 10, low 4, rank 7
Arizona (6-6) - high 11, low 1, rank 6
San Francisco (3-9) - high 6, low 0, rank 3
St. Louis (3-9) - high 7, low 1, rank 4
AFC EAST DIVISION
New England (12-0) - high 12, low 9, rank 10.5
Buffalo (6-6) - high 9, low 3, rank 6
NY Jets (3-9) - high 8, low 1, rank 4.5
Miami (0-12) - high 7, low 0, rank 3.5
AFC NORTH DIVISION
Pittsburgh (9-3) - high 12, low 7, rank 9.5
Cleveland (7-5) - high 10, low 3, rank 6.5
Cincinnati (4-8) - high 6, low 2, rank 4
Baltimore (4-8) - high 8, low 1, rank 4.5
AFC SOUTH DIVISION
Indianapolis (10-2) - high 12, low 6, rank 9
Jacksonville (8-4) - high 10, low 5, rank 7.5
Tennessee (7-5) - high 10, low 3, rank 6.5
Houston (5-7) - high 8, low 3, rank 5.5
AFC WEST DIVISION
San Diego (7-5) - high 9, low 6, rank 7.5
Denver (5-7) - high 7, low 2, rank 4.5
Oakland (4-8) - high 9, low 2, rank 5.5
Kansas City (4-8) - high 6, low 1, rank 3.5
Again ignoring this week's games, the current playoff standings are:
NFC East - Dallas (bye)
NFC North - Green Bay (bye)
NFC South - Tampa Bay
NFC West - Seattle
NFC Wild Cards - NY Giants, (tie between Detroit, Minnesota, Arizona)
AFC East - New England (bye)
AFC North - Pittsburgh
AFC South - Indianapolis (bye)
AFC West - San Diego
AFC Wild Cards - Jacksonville, (tie, Tennessee & Cleveland)
The experiment suggests that Arizona still has a chance, although not a good one, to pass up Seattle for the NFC West division title should they stumble. More likely this does not happen, and Minnesota gets the sixth and final NFC playoff spot. However, don't count out Philadelphia, which has a small but significant chance to sneak into a playoff spot (provided they didn't lose today... haven't checked yet...).
In the AFC, Jacksonville's chances to pass up Indianapolis are even fainter, while the other three division leaders are dominant over their division rivals. Expect no changes there. What's really interesting is that the experiment shows Tennessee and Cleveland in a dead heat- could go either way. There's no head-to-head matchup this season between the two, so I don't know how this tie would be broken, should it go down to the wire. Since Cleveland has the very narrow margin on points allowed v. points scored, though, I'll go with them for purposes of this experiment. Buffalo has an outside chance to sneak in should either Tennessee or Cleveland falter.
Playoff matchups would play out like this, under the experiment:
Week 1:
Minnesota at Seattle - experiment says too close to call, scoring favors Seattle.
NY Giants at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay favored.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh heavily favored.
Jacksonville at San Diego - experiment says too close to call, scoring favors San Diego.
Week 2:
Tampa Bay at Dallas - Dallas heavily favored.
Seattle at Green Bay - Green Bay favored.
San Diego at New England - New England favored.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis - Pittsburgh marginally favored.
NFC Championship - Green Bay at Dallas - Dallas heavily favored.
AFC Championship - Pittsburgh at New England - New England favored.
Super Bowl - Dallas v. New England - New England marginally favored.
More to the point, the system does not actually change any positions- they pretty much line up with the actual win-loss record. The exceptions- for example, saying that the 0-12 Miami Dolphins might be better than the 3-9 San Francisco Giants- are generally in the bottom half of the standings.
I'll try this again at the end of the regular season- both to see how well this holds up, and to see what, if anything, shifts in which teams the experiment favors. For now, though, this feels a bit like I'm chasing up a dead-end here; the dominant teams, and especially New England, really are just that dominant.
(But I will say this much: any game that says "too close to call," bet on whichever team the bookies give points; and bet against New England minus the spread on any game they're not heavily favored to win.)
One of the factors I used in the Stupor Bowl this year was "near losses." Near losses are losses by eight points or less- where one more or one less score could have changed the outcome of the game into a win for the team in question.
Yesterday I was listening to yet another commentator anointing the New England Patriots as the best football team ever to take the turf, destined to go undefeated straight to the Super Bowl. I then thought: Yes, but there are some one-loss and two-loss teams who might have something to say about that. How dominating are the teams... really?
And the answer is, of course, "How many games were close?"
So I'm going to try an experiment. Ignoring those of today's games which have already ended (including the Texans, who upset Tampa Bay 28-14, yay!), I'll take the records of all 32 NFL teams this year and, instead of going by a single win-loss stat, I'm going to give them a range. The lower end of the range will be the team's number of wins if every close game went AGAINST them; the upper end of the range will be the team's number of wins if every close game went FOR them. The number in the center of the range will be, for purposes of this experiment, the true strength rating of the team; low is for losers, high is for winners.
I predict, before I start juggling numbers, that this will have the effect of bringing sky-high teams like the Patriots and Packers down, and lifting abysmal teams like the Dolphins up. (Well, not much in the case of Miami, but...) This isn't a bad thing- after all, as the saying goes, on Any Given Sunday Any NFL Team Can Beat Any Other NFL Team. They're -supposed- to be close.
Anyhow, let's get started...
NFC EAST DIVISION
Dallas (11-1) - high 11, low 9, rank 10
NY Giants (8-4) - high 8, low 4, rank 6
Washington (5-7 not counting Thurs. night) - high 10, low 1, rank 5.5
Philadelphia (5-7) - high 10, low 2, rank 6
NFC NORTH DIVISION
Green Bay (10-2) - high 11, low 5, rank 8
Detroit (6-6) - high 7, low 4, rank 5.5
Minnesota (6-6) - high 10, low 4, rank 7
Chicago (5-7 not counting Thurs. night) - high 9, low 2, rank 5.5
NFC SOUTH DIVISION
Tampa Bay (8-4) - high 10, low 4, rank 7
Carolina (5-7) - high 6, low 3, rank 4.5
New Orleans (5-7) - high 8, low 4, rank 6
Atlanta (3-9) - high 6, low 1, rank 3.5
NFC WEST DIVISION
Seattle (8-4) - high 10, low 4, rank 7
Arizona (6-6) - high 11, low 1, rank 6
San Francisco (3-9) - high 6, low 0, rank 3
St. Louis (3-9) - high 7, low 1, rank 4
AFC EAST DIVISION
New England (12-0) - high 12, low 9, rank 10.5
Buffalo (6-6) - high 9, low 3, rank 6
NY Jets (3-9) - high 8, low 1, rank 4.5
Miami (0-12) - high 7, low 0, rank 3.5
AFC NORTH DIVISION
Pittsburgh (9-3) - high 12, low 7, rank 9.5
Cleveland (7-5) - high 10, low 3, rank 6.5
Cincinnati (4-8) - high 6, low 2, rank 4
Baltimore (4-8) - high 8, low 1, rank 4.5
AFC SOUTH DIVISION
Indianapolis (10-2) - high 12, low 6, rank 9
Jacksonville (8-4) - high 10, low 5, rank 7.5
Tennessee (7-5) - high 10, low 3, rank 6.5
Houston (5-7) - high 8, low 3, rank 5.5
AFC WEST DIVISION
San Diego (7-5) - high 9, low 6, rank 7.5
Denver (5-7) - high 7, low 2, rank 4.5
Oakland (4-8) - high 9, low 2, rank 5.5
Kansas City (4-8) - high 6, low 1, rank 3.5
Again ignoring this week's games, the current playoff standings are:
NFC East - Dallas (bye)
NFC North - Green Bay (bye)
NFC South - Tampa Bay
NFC West - Seattle
NFC Wild Cards - NY Giants, (tie between Detroit, Minnesota, Arizona)
AFC East - New England (bye)
AFC North - Pittsburgh
AFC South - Indianapolis (bye)
AFC West - San Diego
AFC Wild Cards - Jacksonville, (tie, Tennessee & Cleveland)
The experiment suggests that Arizona still has a chance, although not a good one, to pass up Seattle for the NFC West division title should they stumble. More likely this does not happen, and Minnesota gets the sixth and final NFC playoff spot. However, don't count out Philadelphia, which has a small but significant chance to sneak into a playoff spot (provided they didn't lose today... haven't checked yet...).
In the AFC, Jacksonville's chances to pass up Indianapolis are even fainter, while the other three division leaders are dominant over their division rivals. Expect no changes there. What's really interesting is that the experiment shows Tennessee and Cleveland in a dead heat- could go either way. There's no head-to-head matchup this season between the two, so I don't know how this tie would be broken, should it go down to the wire. Since Cleveland has the very narrow margin on points allowed v. points scored, though, I'll go with them for purposes of this experiment. Buffalo has an outside chance to sneak in should either Tennessee or Cleveland falter.
Playoff matchups would play out like this, under the experiment:
Week 1:
Minnesota at Seattle - experiment says too close to call, scoring favors Seattle.
NY Giants at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay favored.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh heavily favored.
Jacksonville at San Diego - experiment says too close to call, scoring favors San Diego.
Week 2:
Tampa Bay at Dallas - Dallas heavily favored.
Seattle at Green Bay - Green Bay favored.
San Diego at New England - New England favored.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis - Pittsburgh marginally favored.
NFC Championship - Green Bay at Dallas - Dallas heavily favored.
AFC Championship - Pittsburgh at New England - New England favored.
Super Bowl - Dallas v. New England - New England marginally favored.
More to the point, the system does not actually change any positions- they pretty much line up with the actual win-loss record. The exceptions- for example, saying that the 0-12 Miami Dolphins might be better than the 3-9 San Francisco Giants- are generally in the bottom half of the standings.
I'll try this again at the end of the regular season- both to see how well this holds up, and to see what, if anything, shifts in which teams the experiment favors. For now, though, this feels a bit like I'm chasing up a dead-end here; the dominant teams, and especially New England, really are just that dominant.
(But I will say this much: any game that says "too close to call," bet on whichever team the bookies give points; and bet against New England minus the spread on any game they're not heavily favored to win.)
