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Today's polls are swinging back towards Clinton, making my estimated delegate count unchanged...
... and the LA Times, La Opinion (the US's largest Spanish newspaper) and the Wall Street Journal give their reasons to support Obama and oppose Clinton- all of which I agree with.
As for what the delegate count means: if Clinton gets an advantage of 200 pledged delegates or more on Tsunami Tuesday, Obama will have lost his chance; there's little hope of making up that difference, unless he begins winning states by absolutely overwhelming margins. If Clinton has an advantage of less than 100 delegates, however, Obama goes strong into a series of primaries and caucuses that favor him. If that happens, Clinton will have to struggle to hold on until March 4, where two huge states- Ohio and Texas- still favor her, according to the polls.
And if by a miracle Obama actually wins the delegate count- or if he wins California, which probably ends up being the same thing- then Clinton will feel extreme pressure to abandon her campaign and fall in line. As it is Clinton's tapped out most of her big donors, whereas Obama is getting a third of his support from microdonors- people donating $100 or less at a time.
Well, enough politics: I need to turn out some script for two comics tonight...
... and the LA Times, La Opinion (the US's largest Spanish newspaper) and the Wall Street Journal give their reasons to support Obama and oppose Clinton- all of which I agree with.
As for what the delegate count means: if Clinton gets an advantage of 200 pledged delegates or more on Tsunami Tuesday, Obama will have lost his chance; there's little hope of making up that difference, unless he begins winning states by absolutely overwhelming margins. If Clinton has an advantage of less than 100 delegates, however, Obama goes strong into a series of primaries and caucuses that favor him. If that happens, Clinton will have to struggle to hold on until March 4, where two huge states- Ohio and Texas- still favor her, according to the polls.
And if by a miracle Obama actually wins the delegate count- or if he wins California, which probably ends up being the same thing- then Clinton will feel extreme pressure to abandon her campaign and fall in line. As it is Clinton's tapped out most of her big donors, whereas Obama is getting a third of his support from microdonors- people donating $100 or less at a time.
Well, enough politics: I need to turn out some script for two comics tonight...
