Feb. 1st, 2008

redneckgaijin: (Default)
Cinton was ahead on points until the subject of Iraq came up...

... whereupon Obama beat her like a red-headed stepchild (and I should know).

All of which, of course, done in a polite and cordial fashion, almost an inter-campaign love fest.

I don't think the debate changes much, except possibly to give Obama a very slight name-recognition boost.

Update to the delegate estimate soon to come...

... but it's interesting to know that two unions that had supported Edwards are announcing their endorsement of Obama...

... as is MoveOn.org. Now there is a mixed endorsement... even a lot of Democrats aren't fond of MoveOn.
redneckgaijin: (Default)
Cinton was ahead on points until the subject of Iraq came up...

... whereupon Obama beat her like a red-headed stepchild (and I should know).

All of which, of course, done in a polite and cordial fashion, almost an inter-campaign love fest.

I don't think the debate changes much, except possibly to give Obama a very slight name-recognition boost.

Update to the delegate estimate soon to come...

... but it's interesting to know that two unions that had supported Edwards are announcing their endorsement of Obama...

... as is MoveOn.org. Now there is a mixed endorsement... even a lot of Democrats aren't fond of MoveOn.
redneckgaijin: (Default)
For the Dems, that is- nothing I've seen today shows any movement to speak of on the Republican side, except possibly to solidify McCain's lead.

A flood of new polls, decidedly a mixed bag...

... but trending more or less Obama-ward. New guesstimate Clinton 892, Obama 786 Clinton 888, Obama 790 on Tuesday.

Looking at the back end of the polls, certain stats are rather grim for the Obama campaign. Overall the trend seems to be that most Edwards supporters are going over to Obama. Unfortunately, the exception is the South, where Edwards' support was lily-white... and most of those are going over to Hillary. Obama's gains in the south are solely on the black vote leaving Hillary.

I'm debating whether or not to actually go through all the Democrat primaries as I did with the Republicans, nail down the mechanisms used to distribute delegates, and work out a more accurate estimate. I haven't done it because there's only two viable Democratic candidates left, because most polls don't break down by Congressional district or even region, and because it'd be a lot of work. About the best I can do is list what states I'm calling for who at this point:

CLINTON WINS: American Samoa, Delaware, New Mexico, Utah, Arizona, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee. (10 states)
OBAMA WINS: Alaska, Kansas, North Dakota, Idaho, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois (7 states)
TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Democrats Abroad, Alabama, California, Connecticut, Massachusetts. Missouri. (6 states)

It looks like it's going to be VERY close on Tuesday. I'm rooting for an Obama upset.

Edit: A reader let me know I had the numbers backwards on the new Connecticut poll, hence the correction. Also, a new Missouri poll released just after I posted shows Clinton and Obama within that poll's margin of error- Clinton up by four points. Tighter and tighter it becomes...
redneckgaijin: (Default)
For the Dems, that is- nothing I've seen today shows any movement to speak of on the Republican side, except possibly to solidify McCain's lead.

A flood of new polls, decidedly a mixed bag...

... but trending more or less Obama-ward. New guesstimate Clinton 892, Obama 786 Clinton 888, Obama 790 on Tuesday.

Looking at the back end of the polls, certain stats are rather grim for the Obama campaign. Overall the trend seems to be that most Edwards supporters are going over to Obama. Unfortunately, the exception is the South, where Edwards' support was lily-white... and most of those are going over to Hillary. Obama's gains in the south are solely on the black vote leaving Hillary.

I'm debating whether or not to actually go through all the Democrat primaries as I did with the Republicans, nail down the mechanisms used to distribute delegates, and work out a more accurate estimate. I haven't done it because there's only two viable Democratic candidates left, because most polls don't break down by Congressional district or even region, and because it'd be a lot of work. About the best I can do is list what states I'm calling for who at this point:

CLINTON WINS: American Samoa, Delaware, New Mexico, Utah, Arizona, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee. (10 states)
OBAMA WINS: Alaska, Kansas, North Dakota, Idaho, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois (7 states)
TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Democrats Abroad, Alabama, California, Connecticut, Massachusetts. Missouri. (6 states)

It looks like it's going to be VERY close on Tuesday. I'm rooting for an Obama upset.

Edit: A reader let me know I had the numbers backwards on the new Connecticut poll, hence the correction. Also, a new Missouri poll released just after I posted shows Clinton and Obama within that poll's margin of error- Clinton up by four points. Tighter and tighter it becomes...
redneckgaijin: (Default)
A bunch of one-paragraph mentions of news stories...

... half recent, half REALLY REALLY REALLY OLD.

In order:

* Hillary Clinton used robo-calls to slam John Edwards in South Carolina before she praised him to the nines when he quit.

* According to the Federal Elections Commission, two people constitute a PAC: if you split hotel expenses at a political convention, for instance, you're committing an election crime unless you file and report.

* Bush lied. We know.

* Dubya's much-touted economic record is better than his dad's... and worse than every other. President since JFK. (Yes, worse than Carter, too.)

* The day after advocating federal investment in clean coal tech, Bush kills a huge clean-coal project... because it was going to be built in Illinois, not Texas as he and his cronies wanted.

* May 2007: the FBI and CIA create terrorists where none existed, out of people who have trouble getting through doors and around corners.

* May 2007: the Pentagon has no contingency plan for withdrawal from Iraq. According to Hillary in last night's debate, they still don't.

* May 2007: We have socialized medicine: it's called Medicaid, and between a quarter and a third of your state's budget goes to fund it. Result: inflated medical costs for everyone, including those actually trying to get Medicaid to pay up.

* May 2007: New Texas law: students can now demand that schools provide them bible study- er, "religious studies" classes.

* May 2007: Domain cyber-squatters get rich. The richest of the lot, Kevin Ham, wants to use cyber-squatting to conquer the whole Internet.

I've got a lot more, if I want to take the time to go through all the bookmarks I set aside when I badly misjudged my time available for blogging. (I'm currently in a bit of a lull, life-wise; things will pick up quite soon...)
redneckgaijin: (Default)
A bunch of one-paragraph mentions of news stories...

... half recent, half REALLY REALLY REALLY OLD.

In order:

* Hillary Clinton used robo-calls to slam John Edwards in South Carolina before she praised him to the nines when he quit.

* According to the Federal Elections Commission, two people constitute a PAC: if you split hotel expenses at a political convention, for instance, you're committing an election crime unless you file and report.

* Bush lied. We know.

* Dubya's much-touted economic record is better than his dad's... and worse than every other. President since JFK. (Yes, worse than Carter, too.)

* The day after advocating federal investment in clean coal tech, Bush kills a huge clean-coal project... because it was going to be built in Illinois, not Texas as he and his cronies wanted.

* May 2007: the FBI and CIA create terrorists where none existed, out of people who have trouble getting through doors and around corners.

* May 2007: the Pentagon has no contingency plan for withdrawal from Iraq. According to Hillary in last night's debate, they still don't.

* May 2007: We have socialized medicine: it's called Medicaid, and between a quarter and a third of your state's budget goes to fund it. Result: inflated medical costs for everyone, including those actually trying to get Medicaid to pay up.

* May 2007: New Texas law: students can now demand that schools provide them bible study- er, "religious studies" classes.

* May 2007: Domain cyber-squatters get rich. The richest of the lot, Kevin Ham, wants to use cyber-squatting to conquer the whole Internet.

I've got a lot more, if I want to take the time to go through all the bookmarks I set aside when I badly misjudged my time available for blogging. (I'm currently in a bit of a lull, life-wise; things will pick up quite soon...)
redneckgaijin: (Default)
Well, if you didn't read my candidate reviews on Liberty Yes, Anarchy No...

... the Los Angeles Times says it far more politely than I ever could.

Those of you in California who can vote on Tuesday, for the love of God please do not stay home on Tuesday.

Other places, I want you to vote too, but if Obama steals California from Clinton- and the polls show it's now possible, if the turnout is very high- that makes Obama the frontrunner and Clinton the challenger...

... and once that happens, the slow bleed of support we've seen from her to Obama will become a torrent.
redneckgaijin: (Default)
Well, if you didn't read my candidate reviews on Liberty Yes, Anarchy No...

... the Los Angeles Times says it far more politely than I ever could.

Those of you in California who can vote on Tuesday, for the love of God please do not stay home on Tuesday.

Other places, I want you to vote too, but if Obama steals California from Clinton- and the polls show it's now possible, if the turnout is very high- that makes Obama the frontrunner and Clinton the challenger...

... and once that happens, the slow bleed of support we've seen from her to Obama will become a torrent.

Profile

redneckgaijin: (Default)
redneckgaijin

August 2018

S M T W T F S
    1234
567891011
121314 15161718
192021 22232425
262728 293031 

Most Popular Tags

Style Credit

Expand Cut Tags

No cut tags
Page generated Jul. 12th, 2025 02:46 pm
Powered by Dreamwidth Studios