Who are the GOP now?
May. 19th, 2009 05:26 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
redneckgaijinGallup released the results of a very interesting poll the other day.
They present it in rather a provocative- and slightly misleading- way, though- "The Republicans are losing every possible demographic." That's not the way to look at it. Instead of comparing all demographics then and now, let's focus on which groups were most dominant in the GOP then, and which are now.
BY REGION
THEN the South, Midwest and West were about equal in supporting Republicans. NOW the Midwest has lost faith drastically in the GOP, while the South and West have lost much less strength in those areas- with the South more dominant than ever.
BY EDUCATION
THEN college graduates were more likely to be Republican than non-grads- 47% of grads, only 43% of non-grads. NOW the numbers are almost perfectly reversed- 37% of grads, 40% of non-grads.
BY WEALTH
THEN the richer you were, the more likely you were Republican - 54% of those over $75,000 per annum income, 48% of $30-75K, but only 37% of under $30K. NOW the trend has increased- 47% of $75K+, 39% of 30K-75K, and only 28% of those under $30K.
BY AGE
THEN there was no clear difference between age groups. NOW only two groups peek over 40% identification- the 30-49 group (dominated by Generation X, the children of the "Greed is Good" 80's) and the over-65 group. More to the point, the over-65 group shows negligible loss of support for the GOP over the past eight years.
BY RELIGIOUS FERVOR
THEN two-thirds of those who attend church every week supported the Republicans- as opposed to 48% of occasional churchgoers and only 38% of those who never go. NOW the regular churchgoers are still two-thirds Republican- not even a single percentile drop- but the other two groups have dropped markedly.
So... we have the GOP, controlled by the religious, the elderly, the rich, the ignorant, and the Southern... even more so than usual.
AND THE MOST SCARY THING ABOUT THIS POLL...
... is that the Republicans still have the support of about two out of five Americans nationwide.
They present it in rather a provocative- and slightly misleading- way, though- "The Republicans are losing every possible demographic." That's not the way to look at it. Instead of comparing all demographics then and now, let's focus on which groups were most dominant in the GOP then, and which are now.
BY REGION
THEN the South, Midwest and West were about equal in supporting Republicans. NOW the Midwest has lost faith drastically in the GOP, while the South and West have lost much less strength in those areas- with the South more dominant than ever.
BY EDUCATION
THEN college graduates were more likely to be Republican than non-grads- 47% of grads, only 43% of non-grads. NOW the numbers are almost perfectly reversed- 37% of grads, 40% of non-grads.
BY WEALTH
THEN the richer you were, the more likely you were Republican - 54% of those over $75,000 per annum income, 48% of $30-75K, but only 37% of under $30K. NOW the trend has increased- 47% of $75K+, 39% of 30K-75K, and only 28% of those under $30K.
BY AGE
THEN there was no clear difference between age groups. NOW only two groups peek over 40% identification- the 30-49 group (dominated by Generation X, the children of the "Greed is Good" 80's) and the over-65 group. More to the point, the over-65 group shows negligible loss of support for the GOP over the past eight years.
BY RELIGIOUS FERVOR
THEN two-thirds of those who attend church every week supported the Republicans- as opposed to 48% of occasional churchgoers and only 38% of those who never go. NOW the regular churchgoers are still two-thirds Republican- not even a single percentile drop- but the other two groups have dropped markedly.
So... we have the GOP, controlled by the religious, the elderly, the rich, the ignorant, and the Southern... even more so than usual.
AND THE MOST SCARY THING ABOUT THIS POLL...
... is that the Republicans still have the support of about two out of five Americans nationwide.
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no subject
Date: 2009-05-20 03:07 am (UTC)Thought: given the non-runoff nature of the American voting system, I'd be tempted to start a populist far/mid-right-wing party with the unstated aim of attracting as close as possible to half the GOP votes in any general election.
Not such a bad thing...
Date: 2009-05-21 01:37 am (UTC)That means that the likelyhood of making a third party a viable thing has gone up.
Let the Republicans paint themselves into a corner. It just makes a Centerist-Pragmatic party more viable than it's been in years; because there are a lot of Conservative Americans that just can't put up with a Religious-Right Party as their party of choice, and aren't ready to become Democrats yet.
This promises to be interesting...