US House Elections: My Predictions A-F
Aug. 21st, 2010 12:38 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
redneckgaijinFor states from Alabama to Florida, my breakdown by state of the numbers. I count as LOCKED any seat without other major party opposition or where the major party opponent has no website, and thus presumably no organized campaign.
ALABAMA - 7 seats
2 Republican unopposed, 1 Republican with only minor party opposition (Constitution), Republican with Dem opponent w/o website - 4 Locked seats
Remaining seats: Bobby Bright (D) is a freshman in a strongly Republican district whose 2008 election went to a recount; at best you have to color that race a Lean Republican. The only reason it's not a Strong R is that the Republican nominee's only prior political experience is as a Montgomery city councilwoman. Bright is a former mayor.
Parker Griffith was a Democrat but changed parties in protest of, well, the entire Democratic agenda really. And he lost in the primary. Badly. Although historically Democratic, this district votes overwhelmingly Republican in national elections (giving McCain over 60% in 2008). Call this one Leans R (and that's being generous, I think).
Finally, Artur Davis's seat, which is racially gerrymandered to be Strong Democrat.
TOTAL SCORE: D 1, R 6, 0 Tossup.
ALASKA - 1 seat
It's Alaska. It's Don Young. It's a Strong R, with only a sole Democrat in the primary keeping it from being a lock.
STATE SCORE: D 0, R 1, 0 Tossup
TOTAL: D 1, R 7, 0 Tossup
ARIZONA - 8 seats
No locks- as such, but the primary hasn't happened yet. However, Districts 2, 3 and 6 have either frequent candidates or only token candidates on the Democratic side, so score them Strong R.
In the 1st, Ann Kilpatrick is a freshman who won in '08 with 56% of the vote in a district McCain won by the same margin. The district is usually a swing district, but it's rural and conservative, and there's a host of Republicans trying to run against her. I'd have to rate this one Leans R.
Ed Pastor (D) is a lock to hold urban Phoenix, and only the fact that both his Republican challengers have at least minimal organization puts this in Strong D rather than Lock D.
Harry Mitchell (D) took over from the disgraced J. D. Hayworth (who now seeks to unseat McCain in the Senate primary) in 2006. Mostly suburban Phoenix, the 5th District is definitely swing territory. There's a broad Republican field, but I'd bet 2008 nominee David Schweikert gets the nod- making the rematch a Tossup.
Raul Grijalva is in like Flynn in his majority-Hispanic district including liberal Tuscon, with organized but unlikely R opposition making his race Strong D.
Finally, Gabrielle Geffords in the 8th District voted for the stimulus. The 8th district is very much swing territory. That said, I think the Republican field against her is weak enough to rate her race Lean D.
STATE SCORE: D 3, R 4, 1 Tossup
TOTAL: D 4, R 11, 1 Tossup
ARKANSAS - 4 seats
Only one incumbent running for re-election- a Democrat against a former Miss Arkansas. Drop that in the Strong D.
The 3rd District is the northwest- Walton territory, Bentonville, etc. Extremely Republican, so Mayor Steve Womack (R) is almost certain to defeat David Whitaker- Strong R.
District 2 centers on Little Rock and is about as close as Democrats have to safe territory. With a state senator running against a Karl Rove henchman, I'd have to call that Lean D- but no better than that.
Finally, the 1st District, northwest Arkansas. Formerly a swing district, but went 2-1 for McCain in 2008. The Democrat incumbent is retiring, and his replacement nominee is his young chief of staff... running against a farm radio host and organizer on the Republican side. I score this one Strong R on candidate mismatch, election trend and local demographic trend.
STATE SCORE: D 2, R 2, 0 Tossup
TOTAL: D 6, R 13, 1 Tossup
CALIFORNIA (ooooh boy) - 53 seats
Locked:
2 Republican unopposed (21, 22) - 2 Locked seats
1 Democrat with only minor party opposition (16), 3 Democrat with GOP opponent w/o website (9, 12, 32) - 4 Locked seats
Strong due to weak opponent (not credible / inexperienced / frequent candidate): Dists. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 14, 15, 17, 23, 24, 25, 26, 29, 30, 31, 34, 38, 39, 40, 41, 43, 44, 46, 49, 50, 52, 53
Dem 17, GOP 12
Of the remaining, strong due to district demographics or past partisan results: Dists. 1 (D), 2 (R), 13 (D), 18 (D), 19 (R), 20 (D), 22 (R), 27 (D), 28 (D), 33 (D), 35 (D), 36 (D), 37 (D), 42 (R), 47 (D), 51 (D)
Dem 12, GOP 3
That leaves only the 11th, the 45th, and the 48th. I include the 48th only out of courtesy, because Obama won it (barely) in '08. It's still at the very least Leans R.
The 11th is a true swing district- possibly the only one in the whole state of California. Incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney is a two-termer of mixed record. His opponent is a scion of past California politicos, with significant backing. Color this one a toss-up until proven otherwise.
Finally, the 45th- currently held by the widow of Sonny Bono. This district turned for Obama in '08. Mary Bono Mack faces the mayor of Palm Springs and a gradual demographic trend favoring the Democrats. I still have to say this one Leans R, considering the anti-Congress (and thus anti-Dem) polling nationally, but it could be closer.
STATE SCORE: D 33, R 19, 1 Tossup
TOTAL: D 39, R 32, 2 Tossup
COLORADO- 7 seats
Districts 1-3 are overwhelmingly Democratic, 5-6 overwhelmingly Republican in demographics and past performance. District 4 leans slightly Republican and 7 slightly Democratic, but in neither case strongly enough to call it on that alone.
So- District 4. Betsy Markey's a freshman, and thus vulnerable. She's up against the Republican whip in the state house- possibly as strong an opponent as could be found in the state. Call this one Leans R.
And District 7- Ed Perlmutter doesn't have as strong an opponent, but at least he's a current officeholder- Aurora City Council. He's a two-termer with a record of flip-flopping on net neutrality, so he's likely got problems with his base. On the other hand, he overwhelmingly won in 2008 and his district is trending Democrat... so I'm going to keep this Lean D rather than Tossup.
STATE SCORE: D 4, R 3, 0 Tossup
TOTAL: D 43, R 35, 2 Tossup
CONNECTICUT- 5 seats
Districts 1 and 3 are just not competitive at all for Republicans; cross them off. The Republican nominee in District 2 is a former TV reporter with no elective office experience- cross that one off as well. All three Strong Democrat.
Districts 4 (Chris Shays' former district) and 5 (the rural northwest of the state) are the Republicans' best shots for pickups. Both Republican candidates are sitting state senators. Both districts can be considered swing seats. The Democratic incumbents are a freshman and a two-termer- and the two-termer is a devout liberal. Score both of these races as tossups in the current throw-the-bums-out environment.
STATE SCORE: D 3, R 0, 2 Tossup
TOTAL: D 46, R 35, 4 Tossup
DELAWARE- 1 seat
The three Republican challengers are all so unlikely and noncredible- none of them have ever held public office, unless you count Miss USA- that you can't help but mark this one as Strong D, especially when the Democratic nominee is John Carney.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 0, 0 Tossup
TOTAL: D 47, R 35, 4 Tossup
FLORIDA- 25 seats
Locked:
3 Republicans with only minor party opposition (1, 4, 6), 1 Republican unopposed (21) - 4 Locked seats
1 Democrat with only minor party opposition (17) - 1 Locked seats
Strong due to weak opponent (not credible / inexperienced / frequent candidate): Dists. 2 (D), 5 (R), 7 (R), 11 (D), 13 (R), 14 (R), 15 (R), 16 (R), 18 (R), 19 (D), 20 (D), 22 (D), 23 (D)
Dem 6, GOP 7
Of the remaining, strong due to district demographics or past partisan results: Dists. 3 (D)
Dem 1, GOP 0
That leaves six districts: the 8th, 9th, 10th, 12th, 24th and 25th.
Alan Grayson is the freshman Democrat in the 8th. He's made himself a figure in the House in his first term as a very loud liberal. "The Republican healthcare plan: if you're poor, die quickly." He's a capital-T target. There are six Republicans vying to challenge him, two with serious credentials- State Rep. Kurt Kelly and ex-state Speaker and ex-Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster. He won by a relatively narrow margin in 2008. About the only good news for him is that his base is almost certainly united against him- he's one of the few liberal heroes from the last two years. The district was Republican until recently... I'm calling this one a tossup.
The 9th District is a bit easier to call. It's Republican held in a Republican state in a Republican year. His opponents, though both respectable, have no elective history and are definitely more liberal than the district. This district could swing, but not this year- Strong R.
Ditto the 10th District in all respects.
The 12th District is Republican... but McCain only polled 51% there in 2008. The Republican incumbent is vacating the seat in a run for statewide office. The Republican primary fight is establishment v. tea party, and if the tea party candidate manages to beat the appointed heir then the Democrats have a chance. Thus, the seat only Leans R.
The 24th is held by Susanne Kozmas, a freshman Democrat in a Republican-leaning district. She's facing a broad array of Republican challengers, including a wealthy corporate ex-CEO and two elected officials. She campaigned as a blue-dog Democrat, but she cast votes in favor of the bailouts and for the Senate version of health care reform. She's in very deep trouble indeed- and I'm picking the race as Leans R.
Finally, the 25th- a Republican-leaning district with the incumbent shifting seats to another district (taking over his brother's seat). The leading Democrat and Republican are equally strong on paper. The slight Republican lean of the district, plus the strong expected lean of the election nationwide, makes what would otherwise be a tossup into a Lean R.
STATE SCORE: D 8, R 16, 1 Tossup
So- total thus far: D 55, R 51, 5 Tossup. Over 320 seats to go.
More tomorrow if/when I find time. Bed now.
ALABAMA - 7 seats
2 Republican unopposed, 1 Republican with only minor party opposition (Constitution), Republican with Dem opponent w/o website - 4 Locked seats
Remaining seats: Bobby Bright (D) is a freshman in a strongly Republican district whose 2008 election went to a recount; at best you have to color that race a Lean Republican. The only reason it's not a Strong R is that the Republican nominee's only prior political experience is as a Montgomery city councilwoman. Bright is a former mayor.
Parker Griffith was a Democrat but changed parties in protest of, well, the entire Democratic agenda really. And he lost in the primary. Badly. Although historically Democratic, this district votes overwhelmingly Republican in national elections (giving McCain over 60% in 2008). Call this one Leans R (and that's being generous, I think).
Finally, Artur Davis's seat, which is racially gerrymandered to be Strong Democrat.
TOTAL SCORE: D 1, R 6, 0 Tossup.
ALASKA - 1 seat
It's Alaska. It's Don Young. It's a Strong R, with only a sole Democrat in the primary keeping it from being a lock.
STATE SCORE: D 0, R 1, 0 Tossup
TOTAL: D 1, R 7, 0 Tossup
ARIZONA - 8 seats
No locks- as such, but the primary hasn't happened yet. However, Districts 2, 3 and 6 have either frequent candidates or only token candidates on the Democratic side, so score them Strong R.
In the 1st, Ann Kilpatrick is a freshman who won in '08 with 56% of the vote in a district McCain won by the same margin. The district is usually a swing district, but it's rural and conservative, and there's a host of Republicans trying to run against her. I'd have to rate this one Leans R.
Ed Pastor (D) is a lock to hold urban Phoenix, and only the fact that both his Republican challengers have at least minimal organization puts this in Strong D rather than Lock D.
Harry Mitchell (D) took over from the disgraced J. D. Hayworth (who now seeks to unseat McCain in the Senate primary) in 2006. Mostly suburban Phoenix, the 5th District is definitely swing territory. There's a broad Republican field, but I'd bet 2008 nominee David Schweikert gets the nod- making the rematch a Tossup.
Raul Grijalva is in like Flynn in his majority-Hispanic district including liberal Tuscon, with organized but unlikely R opposition making his race Strong D.
Finally, Gabrielle Geffords in the 8th District voted for the stimulus. The 8th district is very much swing territory. That said, I think the Republican field against her is weak enough to rate her race Lean D.
STATE SCORE: D 3, R 4, 1 Tossup
TOTAL: D 4, R 11, 1 Tossup
ARKANSAS - 4 seats
Only one incumbent running for re-election- a Democrat against a former Miss Arkansas. Drop that in the Strong D.
The 3rd District is the northwest- Walton territory, Bentonville, etc. Extremely Republican, so Mayor Steve Womack (R) is almost certain to defeat David Whitaker- Strong R.
District 2 centers on Little Rock and is about as close as Democrats have to safe territory. With a state senator running against a Karl Rove henchman, I'd have to call that Lean D- but no better than that.
Finally, the 1st District, northwest Arkansas. Formerly a swing district, but went 2-1 for McCain in 2008. The Democrat incumbent is retiring, and his replacement nominee is his young chief of staff... running against a farm radio host and organizer on the Republican side. I score this one Strong R on candidate mismatch, election trend and local demographic trend.
STATE SCORE: D 2, R 2, 0 Tossup
TOTAL: D 6, R 13, 1 Tossup
CALIFORNIA (ooooh boy) - 53 seats
Locked:
2 Republican unopposed (21, 22) - 2 Locked seats
1 Democrat with only minor party opposition (16), 3 Democrat with GOP opponent w/o website (9, 12, 32) - 4 Locked seats
Strong due to weak opponent (not credible / inexperienced / frequent candidate): Dists. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 14, 15, 17, 23, 24, 25, 26, 29, 30, 31, 34, 38, 39, 40, 41, 43, 44, 46, 49, 50, 52, 53
Dem 17, GOP 12
Of the remaining, strong due to district demographics or past partisan results: Dists. 1 (D), 2 (R), 13 (D), 18 (D), 19 (R), 20 (D), 22 (R), 27 (D), 28 (D), 33 (D), 35 (D), 36 (D), 37 (D), 42 (R), 47 (D), 51 (D)
Dem 12, GOP 3
That leaves only the 11th, the 45th, and the 48th. I include the 48th only out of courtesy, because Obama won it (barely) in '08. It's still at the very least Leans R.
The 11th is a true swing district- possibly the only one in the whole state of California. Incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney is a two-termer of mixed record. His opponent is a scion of past California politicos, with significant backing. Color this one a toss-up until proven otherwise.
Finally, the 45th- currently held by the widow of Sonny Bono. This district turned for Obama in '08. Mary Bono Mack faces the mayor of Palm Springs and a gradual demographic trend favoring the Democrats. I still have to say this one Leans R, considering the anti-Congress (and thus anti-Dem) polling nationally, but it could be closer.
STATE SCORE: D 33, R 19, 1 Tossup
TOTAL: D 39, R 32, 2 Tossup
COLORADO- 7 seats
Districts 1-3 are overwhelmingly Democratic, 5-6 overwhelmingly Republican in demographics and past performance. District 4 leans slightly Republican and 7 slightly Democratic, but in neither case strongly enough to call it on that alone.
So- District 4. Betsy Markey's a freshman, and thus vulnerable. She's up against the Republican whip in the state house- possibly as strong an opponent as could be found in the state. Call this one Leans R.
And District 7- Ed Perlmutter doesn't have as strong an opponent, but at least he's a current officeholder- Aurora City Council. He's a two-termer with a record of flip-flopping on net neutrality, so he's likely got problems with his base. On the other hand, he overwhelmingly won in 2008 and his district is trending Democrat... so I'm going to keep this Lean D rather than Tossup.
STATE SCORE: D 4, R 3, 0 Tossup
TOTAL: D 43, R 35, 2 Tossup
CONNECTICUT- 5 seats
Districts 1 and 3 are just not competitive at all for Republicans; cross them off. The Republican nominee in District 2 is a former TV reporter with no elective office experience- cross that one off as well. All three Strong Democrat.
Districts 4 (Chris Shays' former district) and 5 (the rural northwest of the state) are the Republicans' best shots for pickups. Both Republican candidates are sitting state senators. Both districts can be considered swing seats. The Democratic incumbents are a freshman and a two-termer- and the two-termer is a devout liberal. Score both of these races as tossups in the current throw-the-bums-out environment.
STATE SCORE: D 3, R 0, 2 Tossup
TOTAL: D 46, R 35, 4 Tossup
DELAWARE- 1 seat
The three Republican challengers are all so unlikely and noncredible- none of them have ever held public office, unless you count Miss USA- that you can't help but mark this one as Strong D, especially when the Democratic nominee is John Carney.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 0, 0 Tossup
TOTAL: D 47, R 35, 4 Tossup
FLORIDA- 25 seats
Locked:
3 Republicans with only minor party opposition (1, 4, 6), 1 Republican unopposed (21) - 4 Locked seats
1 Democrat with only minor party opposition (17) - 1 Locked seats
Strong due to weak opponent (not credible / inexperienced / frequent candidate): Dists. 2 (D), 5 (R), 7 (R), 11 (D), 13 (R), 14 (R), 15 (R), 16 (R), 18 (R), 19 (D), 20 (D), 22 (D), 23 (D)
Dem 6, GOP 7
Of the remaining, strong due to district demographics or past partisan results: Dists. 3 (D)
Dem 1, GOP 0
That leaves six districts: the 8th, 9th, 10th, 12th, 24th and 25th.
Alan Grayson is the freshman Democrat in the 8th. He's made himself a figure in the House in his first term as a very loud liberal. "The Republican healthcare plan: if you're poor, die quickly." He's a capital-T target. There are six Republicans vying to challenge him, two with serious credentials- State Rep. Kurt Kelly and ex-state Speaker and ex-Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster. He won by a relatively narrow margin in 2008. About the only good news for him is that his base is almost certainly united against him- he's one of the few liberal heroes from the last two years. The district was Republican until recently... I'm calling this one a tossup.
The 9th District is a bit easier to call. It's Republican held in a Republican state in a Republican year. His opponents, though both respectable, have no elective history and are definitely more liberal than the district. This district could swing, but not this year- Strong R.
Ditto the 10th District in all respects.
The 12th District is Republican... but McCain only polled 51% there in 2008. The Republican incumbent is vacating the seat in a run for statewide office. The Republican primary fight is establishment v. tea party, and if the tea party candidate manages to beat the appointed heir then the Democrats have a chance. Thus, the seat only Leans R.
The 24th is held by Susanne Kozmas, a freshman Democrat in a Republican-leaning district. She's facing a broad array of Republican challengers, including a wealthy corporate ex-CEO and two elected officials. She campaigned as a blue-dog Democrat, but she cast votes in favor of the bailouts and for the Senate version of health care reform. She's in very deep trouble indeed- and I'm picking the race as Leans R.
Finally, the 25th- a Republican-leaning district with the incumbent shifting seats to another district (taking over his brother's seat). The leading Democrat and Republican are equally strong on paper. The slight Republican lean of the district, plus the strong expected lean of the election nationwide, makes what would otherwise be a tossup into a Lean R.
STATE SCORE: D 8, R 16, 1 Tossup
So- total thus far: D 55, R 51, 5 Tossup. Over 320 seats to go.
More tomorrow if/when I find time. Bed now.
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Date: 2010-08-21 07:20 pm (UTC)Only one incumbent running for re-election- a Democrat against a former Miss Arkansas. Drop that in the Strong D.
The 3rd District is the northwest- Walton territory, Bentonville, etc. Extremely Republican, so Mayor Steve Womack (R) is almost certain to defeat David Whitaker- Strong R.
District 2 centers on Little Rock and is about as close as Democrats have to safe territory. With a state senator running against a Karl Rove henchman, I'd have to call that Lean D- but no better than that.
Finally, the 1st District, northwest Arkansas. Formerly a swing district, but went 2-1 for McCain in 2008. The Democrat incumbent is retiring, and his replacement nominee is his young chief of staff... running against a farm radio host and organizer on the Republican side. I score this one Strong R on candidate mismatch, election trend and local demographic trend."
This is a failure by you to understand Arkansas politics. Here in Arkansas, Republicans are not the friends of Big Business in Arkansas, Democrats are and always have been. In Arkansas, voting never falls along Democrat/Republican lines. They fall along Rural/Urban lines, and in almost every case, you still wind up voting for a Democrat. From the county level up, you have Democrats in nearly every elected office in the state.
1st District (Northeast Arkansas, my home territory): Berry's boy Chad Cause will most likely win the day since he's Berry's hand-picked successor. In spite of moments of stupidity on Berry's part, he's done a lot for the farmers in the district, and they remember that when they go to polls.
2nd District (Central Arkansas): As sad as it is to say out loud in this day and age, I fear Elliot's skin color will affect her more than anything else.
3rd District (Northwest Arkansas): I disagree and say Whitaker will win since Democrats are friends of Arkansas Big Business (especially Wal-Mart and Tyson).
4th District (Southern Arkansas): Ross would have to be found with a dead hooker and be covered in her blood to lose his seat.