US House Elections: My Predictions P-W
Aug. 23rd, 2010 02:30 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
redneckgaijinBecause we have no states of Xenophon, Ysodore, or Zylwicki.
PENNSYLVANIA- 19 seats
LOCKED:
1 Republican with with only third-party opposition (9) - 1 total
STRONG:
Incumbent party with weak opposition: Dists. 1 (D), 2 (D), 3 (D), 5 (R), 12 (D), 13 (D), 14 (D), 16 (R), 19 (R)
Demographics/past results: Dists. 18 (R)
That leaves eight of nineteen seats potentially in play. Let's break them down:
REMATCHES: Yes, plural. Incumbent D Patrick Murphy v. former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick in the 8th. Paul Kanjorski (D) v. the man who nearly beat him in 2008, mayor Lou Barletta in the 11th. Both incumbents would be vulnerable even without an anti-Democrat election coming up. Score both Lean R.
BLUE DOGS: You may have gathered by now that, as a general rule, I don't believe blue dog Democrats will be helped in the least by voting against certain Democratic-agenda bills such as the stimulus package or health care reform. In fact, I believe it will hurt them by depressing core Democratic turnout- while independents and Republicans will vote based more on the president's performance than the actual representative. To varying extents Jason Altmire (4), Chris Carney (10), and Tim Holden (17) are all blue dogs. Altmire is the most anti-administration, and the most vulnerable, but I'm calling all three races Lean R due to the Republican lean in each district, the Republican lean in national polls, and the very strong Republican candidates in all three races.
REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS: The odds of Republican incumbents (aside from Louisiana and Hawaii) being defeated in 2010 are practically nonexistent. Nevertheless there are two potentially competitive races with Republican incumbents in Pennsylvania this year- the 6th (Jim Gerlach) and the 15th (Charlie Dent), both Philadelphia suburban districts (for sufficiently large values of Philadelphia). Although both men face respectable Democratic challengers (a doctor and Iraq War veteran in the 6th, the mayor of Bethlehem in the 15), both seats are at least Lean R, bordering on Strong R.
That leaves Joe Sestak's district, the 7th, which he's vacating to run for Senate. It's a swing district with strong candidates on both sides, so it goes into the Tossup pile.
STATE SCORE: D 6, R 12, 1 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 169, R 163, 17 Tossup
RHODE ISLAND- 2 seats
Dude... it's Rhode Island. Yes, the Republicans have some very strong candidates in their primaries, but the whole state is so firmly in Democratic hands that only a RINO would swing either seat anyway. Both Solid D.
STATE SCORE: D 2, R 0, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 171, R 163, 17 Tossup
SOUTH CAROLINA- 6 seats
The 1st is a lock for the Republicans, and the 3rd and 4th practically so; the 6th is practically so for the Democrats. The other two seats lie in between. Joe "You Lie" Wilson is facing a rematch against a Democrat who got 46% of the vote in an strong Republican district in 2008- so that one only leans R. In the 5th, Joe Spratt might be a little vulnerable due to his strong support of the Democratic agenda the last two years, but he's such an entrenched incumbent that I don't really see him losing, even against a strong challenge from a Republican state senator. Leans D in that race.
STATE SCORE: D 2, R 4, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 173, R 167, 17 Tossup
SOUTH DAKOTA- 1 seat
Like North Dakota, a lone Democrat in a red state- in deep trouble. Behind in polling to a Republican state representative, a blue dog who can be accused by both sides as voting the wrong way on health care, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is probably going to be shown the door in November. Leans R.
STATE SCORE: D 0, R 1, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 173, R 168, 17 Tossup
TENNESSEE- 9 seats
No credible challenge to incumbents in Districts 1, 2, 5, 7, and 9, and equally one-sided races in the open seats in District 3 and 8- four Strong R, three strong D. That just leaves 4 and 6 to look over. Both, on paper, should be strongly Republican seats for cultural and ethnic breakdowns, but both have Democratic incumbents. The 6th District's incumbent is retiring, though, leaving that an open seat. Although troubled by accusations of racism, the Republican challenger is much stronger than the political neophyte nominated by the Democrats, leaving that seat very Solid R.
The incumbent is staying in District 4- and Lincoln Davis is about as blue dog as they come. That said, the Republicans have fielded a fairly weak candidate against him, and his district has a history of retaining incumbents indefinitely, so this one is probably Solid D.
STATE SCORE: D 4, R 5, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 177, R 173, 17 Tossup
TEXAS- 32 seats
LOCKED:
6 Republican with with only third-party opposition (1, 2, 7, 13, 24, 31), 1 Republican with unorganized Democratic opponent (8- my home district, dammit) - 7 total
STRONG:
Incumbent party with weak opposition: Dists. 3 (R), 4 (R), 5 (R), 6 (R), 9 (D), 10 (R), 11 (R), 12 (R), 14 (R), 15 (D), 16 (D), 18 (D), 19 (R), 20 (D), 21 (R) 22 (R- come on, Dems, a LaRouchie??), 25 (D), 28 (D), 30 (D)
Demographics/past results: Dists. 26 (R), 29 (D), 32 (R)
Thirty-two seats, and only three with even a prayer of being competitive races. That's my state, all right.
First, the 17th- and Chet Edwards, the most targeted Democratic incumbent of the past ten years. His district was gerrymandered in DeLay's and Perry's 2002 redistricting scheme specifically to put him out of office- and yet he has been the Liberal That Would Not Die. Under normal circumstances, his opposition to gay marriage and health care reform would weaken his support... but the flat fact is, there's just not that many liberals in his district in the first place to be turned away. Despite his facing a wealthy self-financed Republican oilman in a district that supported McCain by nearly two to one, Edwards isn't totally beyond hope... but he is definitely in danger. Tossup.
Next, the 23rd- a district specifically drawn to weaken Hispanic voting power, then re-drawn to comply- just barely- with a Supreme Court ruling. The incumbent, Ciro Rodriguez, is a somewhat conservative Democrat with historically shallow pockets. He's facing a wealthy Republican businessman with very deep pockets and strong party backing. This one's another tossup, but my money would be on the Republican in this environment.
Finally, the 27th, from Corpus Christi to Brownsville. Solomon Ortiz has held this seat since it was created, and with a solid base in the most populous county in the district he'll likely hold it as long as he wants it, despite the demographics showing the seat as a potential swing. Solid D.
STATE SCORE: D 10, R 20, 2 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 187, R 193, 19 Tossup
UTAH- 3 seats
There's no real doubt that the two Republican incumbents are going to be returned. Jim Matheson, the Democrat incumbent in the 2nd District, might be vulnerable- he was forced into a primary fight this year for being a blue dog, and of course Utah is the most conservative state in the Union- but his Republican opponent isn't as strong as might otherwise be expected. I'm scoring that race Lean D on the basis of incumbency.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 2, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 188, R 195, 19 Tossup
VERMONT- 1 seat
It's Vermont. It's Bernie Sanders' old seat. And, to top it off, the Republicans vying in the primary are... er... lackluster, at best.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 0, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 189, R 195, 19 Tossup
VIRGINIA- 11 seats
One seat (6th) locked R for lack of Democratic opponent; four more Republican seats with no credible Democratic opposition (1, 4, 7, 10); and three Democratic seats with no credible Republican opponent (2, 8, 11). In addition, the 3rd District is a safely Democratic district, leaving only the 5th and 9th to consider.
The 5th District, were it not for Charlottesville and the University of Virginia, would be so red you could dress Santa in it. The Democratic incumbent is a freshman whose election ended in a recount. This time he's up against a long-time Republican politician in a southern state in an anti-Democrat year- he's toast. Strong R.
The 9th is even worse, because there's not two Universities of Virginia so it could have one as well. The only saving grace for Democrats here is incumbency- Rick Boucher's been the representative since the 1980s. His only significant break with the current administration was on health care- otherwise he's been a loyal (and powerful) Democrat... but he's facing one of the most powerful Republicans in Virginia, the state house majority leader. Tossup.
STATE SCORE: D 4, R 6, 1 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 193, R 201, 20 Tossup
WASHINGTON- 9 seats
Most of these seats are non-competitive; so much for the Top Two primary system. 1, 2, 6 and 7 are safe or better for the D's; 4 and 5 for the R's. Demographics make the 9th pretty secure for the Democrats, leaving only the 3rd and 8th up for grabs.
The 3rd District really is up for grabs, with longtime incumbent Brian Baird retiring. With two strong candidates in the running, this one's an obvious tossup- although my instinct gives the edge to the Republican, who is a currently sitting rather than retired officeholder.
Dave Reichert, the 8th District incumbent, is a Republican- and normally in this cycle that would be all that need be said. His opponent, though, is a former Microsoft executive- which presumably means money to burn. Considering how comparatively narrow Reichert's past victories have been, and considering the Democratic trend of a district formerly based on rural Republican and Mormon voters, this race just barely nudges out of Lean R and into Tossup category in my book.
STATE SCORE: D 5, R 2, 2 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 198, R 203, 22 Tossup
WEST VIRGINIA- 3 seats
Despite being a long-time Democratic stronghold, this entire state has been trending Republican for decades. The Republican incumbent in District 2 will almost certainly cruise to re-election. The District 1 Democratic incumbent lost in the primary over ethics issues, leaving the seat open- but the Democrat who won the primary is a Republican In All But Name, so that race becomes a tossup for simple reasons of, "What's the difference?"
That leaves District 3 and longtime incumbent Nick Rahall. He faces a former Democatic judge- weak opposition- and has served in Congress long enough to have what amounts to an anchor in Washington. That said, I'm only giving him a Lean D rather than a Strong/Solid D, because of ethics problems surrounding his recently convicted son and the simple shift of the state towards the modern rabid Southern version of conservatism.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 1, 1 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 199, R 204, 23 Tossup
WISCONSIN- 8 seats
One Republican (6th) without organized Democratic opposition; two more (1st, 5th) with non-credible Democratic opponents; two Democrats (2, 4) with non-credible Republican opponents.
That leaves the 3rd, 7th and 8th. All three are potentially swing districts. All three are currently held by liberal Democrats. Although one of them (Obey, 7th) is retiring, the stronger of the two Republicans in that race is the man Obey beat down 60-40 in 2008, making that seat Lean D. Ron Kind (3rd) overwhelmingly won his re-election fight in 2008 and faces only middleweight opposition this year, and so also Leans D. Finally, the controversial two-term Dr. Steve Kagen (8th), whose wins have both been narrow ones, faces a field with the strongest candidate being a state representative... but his past underperformance and confrontational attitude, plus the current environment, make his race a tossup at best.
STATE SCORE: D 4, R 3, 1 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 203, R 207, 24 Tossup
WYOMING- 1 seat
Republican incumbent. Non-credible Democratic opponent. The end.
STATE SCORE: D 0, R 1, 0 Tossup
My final prediction count: D 203, R 208, 24 Tossup.
It takes 218 for a clear majority in the House.
Buckle your seats, America, it's going to be a very bumpy ride.
PENNSYLVANIA- 19 seats
LOCKED:
1 Republican with with only third-party opposition (9) - 1 total
STRONG:
Incumbent party with weak opposition: Dists. 1 (D), 2 (D), 3 (D), 5 (R), 12 (D), 13 (D), 14 (D), 16 (R), 19 (R)
Demographics/past results: Dists. 18 (R)
That leaves eight of nineteen seats potentially in play. Let's break them down:
REMATCHES: Yes, plural. Incumbent D Patrick Murphy v. former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick in the 8th. Paul Kanjorski (D) v. the man who nearly beat him in 2008, mayor Lou Barletta in the 11th. Both incumbents would be vulnerable even without an anti-Democrat election coming up. Score both Lean R.
BLUE DOGS: You may have gathered by now that, as a general rule, I don't believe blue dog Democrats will be helped in the least by voting against certain Democratic-agenda bills such as the stimulus package or health care reform. In fact, I believe it will hurt them by depressing core Democratic turnout- while independents and Republicans will vote based more on the president's performance than the actual representative. To varying extents Jason Altmire (4), Chris Carney (10), and Tim Holden (17) are all blue dogs. Altmire is the most anti-administration, and the most vulnerable, but I'm calling all three races Lean R due to the Republican lean in each district, the Republican lean in national polls, and the very strong Republican candidates in all three races.
REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS: The odds of Republican incumbents (aside from Louisiana and Hawaii) being defeated in 2010 are practically nonexistent. Nevertheless there are two potentially competitive races with Republican incumbents in Pennsylvania this year- the 6th (Jim Gerlach) and the 15th (Charlie Dent), both Philadelphia suburban districts (for sufficiently large values of Philadelphia). Although both men face respectable Democratic challengers (a doctor and Iraq War veteran in the 6th, the mayor of Bethlehem in the 15), both seats are at least Lean R, bordering on Strong R.
That leaves Joe Sestak's district, the 7th, which he's vacating to run for Senate. It's a swing district with strong candidates on both sides, so it goes into the Tossup pile.
STATE SCORE: D 6, R 12, 1 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 169, R 163, 17 Tossup
RHODE ISLAND- 2 seats
Dude... it's Rhode Island. Yes, the Republicans have some very strong candidates in their primaries, but the whole state is so firmly in Democratic hands that only a RINO would swing either seat anyway. Both Solid D.
STATE SCORE: D 2, R 0, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 171, R 163, 17 Tossup
SOUTH CAROLINA- 6 seats
The 1st is a lock for the Republicans, and the 3rd and 4th practically so; the 6th is practically so for the Democrats. The other two seats lie in between. Joe "You Lie" Wilson is facing a rematch against a Democrat who got 46% of the vote in an strong Republican district in 2008- so that one only leans R. In the 5th, Joe Spratt might be a little vulnerable due to his strong support of the Democratic agenda the last two years, but he's such an entrenched incumbent that I don't really see him losing, even against a strong challenge from a Republican state senator. Leans D in that race.
STATE SCORE: D 2, R 4, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 173, R 167, 17 Tossup
SOUTH DAKOTA- 1 seat
Like North Dakota, a lone Democrat in a red state- in deep trouble. Behind in polling to a Republican state representative, a blue dog who can be accused by both sides as voting the wrong way on health care, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is probably going to be shown the door in November. Leans R.
STATE SCORE: D 0, R 1, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 173, R 168, 17 Tossup
TENNESSEE- 9 seats
No credible challenge to incumbents in Districts 1, 2, 5, 7, and 9, and equally one-sided races in the open seats in District 3 and 8- four Strong R, three strong D. That just leaves 4 and 6 to look over. Both, on paper, should be strongly Republican seats for cultural and ethnic breakdowns, but both have Democratic incumbents. The 6th District's incumbent is retiring, though, leaving that an open seat. Although troubled by accusations of racism, the Republican challenger is much stronger than the political neophyte nominated by the Democrats, leaving that seat very Solid R.
The incumbent is staying in District 4- and Lincoln Davis is about as blue dog as they come. That said, the Republicans have fielded a fairly weak candidate against him, and his district has a history of retaining incumbents indefinitely, so this one is probably Solid D.
STATE SCORE: D 4, R 5, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 177, R 173, 17 Tossup
TEXAS- 32 seats
LOCKED:
6 Republican with with only third-party opposition (1, 2, 7, 13, 24, 31), 1 Republican with unorganized Democratic opponent (8- my home district, dammit) - 7 total
STRONG:
Incumbent party with weak opposition: Dists. 3 (R), 4 (R), 5 (R), 6 (R), 9 (D), 10 (R), 11 (R), 12 (R), 14 (R), 15 (D), 16 (D), 18 (D), 19 (R), 20 (D), 21 (R) 22 (R- come on, Dems, a LaRouchie??), 25 (D), 28 (D), 30 (D)
Demographics/past results: Dists. 26 (R), 29 (D), 32 (R)
Thirty-two seats, and only three with even a prayer of being competitive races. That's my state, all right.
First, the 17th- and Chet Edwards, the most targeted Democratic incumbent of the past ten years. His district was gerrymandered in DeLay's and Perry's 2002 redistricting scheme specifically to put him out of office- and yet he has been the Liberal That Would Not Die. Under normal circumstances, his opposition to gay marriage and health care reform would weaken his support... but the flat fact is, there's just not that many liberals in his district in the first place to be turned away. Despite his facing a wealthy self-financed Republican oilman in a district that supported McCain by nearly two to one, Edwards isn't totally beyond hope... but he is definitely in danger. Tossup.
Next, the 23rd- a district specifically drawn to weaken Hispanic voting power, then re-drawn to comply- just barely- with a Supreme Court ruling. The incumbent, Ciro Rodriguez, is a somewhat conservative Democrat with historically shallow pockets. He's facing a wealthy Republican businessman with very deep pockets and strong party backing. This one's another tossup, but my money would be on the Republican in this environment.
Finally, the 27th, from Corpus Christi to Brownsville. Solomon Ortiz has held this seat since it was created, and with a solid base in the most populous county in the district he'll likely hold it as long as he wants it, despite the demographics showing the seat as a potential swing. Solid D.
STATE SCORE: D 10, R 20, 2 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 187, R 193, 19 Tossup
UTAH- 3 seats
There's no real doubt that the two Republican incumbents are going to be returned. Jim Matheson, the Democrat incumbent in the 2nd District, might be vulnerable- he was forced into a primary fight this year for being a blue dog, and of course Utah is the most conservative state in the Union- but his Republican opponent isn't as strong as might otherwise be expected. I'm scoring that race Lean D on the basis of incumbency.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 2, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 188, R 195, 19 Tossup
VERMONT- 1 seat
It's Vermont. It's Bernie Sanders' old seat. And, to top it off, the Republicans vying in the primary are... er... lackluster, at best.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 0, 0 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 189, R 195, 19 Tossup
VIRGINIA- 11 seats
One seat (6th) locked R for lack of Democratic opponent; four more Republican seats with no credible Democratic opposition (1, 4, 7, 10); and three Democratic seats with no credible Republican opponent (2, 8, 11). In addition, the 3rd District is a safely Democratic district, leaving only the 5th and 9th to consider.
The 5th District, were it not for Charlottesville and the University of Virginia, would be so red you could dress Santa in it. The Democratic incumbent is a freshman whose election ended in a recount. This time he's up against a long-time Republican politician in a southern state in an anti-Democrat year- he's toast. Strong R.
The 9th is even worse, because there's not two Universities of Virginia so it could have one as well. The only saving grace for Democrats here is incumbency- Rick Boucher's been the representative since the 1980s. His only significant break with the current administration was on health care- otherwise he's been a loyal (and powerful) Democrat... but he's facing one of the most powerful Republicans in Virginia, the state house majority leader. Tossup.
STATE SCORE: D 4, R 6, 1 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 193, R 201, 20 Tossup
WASHINGTON- 9 seats
Most of these seats are non-competitive; so much for the Top Two primary system. 1, 2, 6 and 7 are safe or better for the D's; 4 and 5 for the R's. Demographics make the 9th pretty secure for the Democrats, leaving only the 3rd and 8th up for grabs.
The 3rd District really is up for grabs, with longtime incumbent Brian Baird retiring. With two strong candidates in the running, this one's an obvious tossup- although my instinct gives the edge to the Republican, who is a currently sitting rather than retired officeholder.
Dave Reichert, the 8th District incumbent, is a Republican- and normally in this cycle that would be all that need be said. His opponent, though, is a former Microsoft executive- which presumably means money to burn. Considering how comparatively narrow Reichert's past victories have been, and considering the Democratic trend of a district formerly based on rural Republican and Mormon voters, this race just barely nudges out of Lean R and into Tossup category in my book.
STATE SCORE: D 5, R 2, 2 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 198, R 203, 22 Tossup
WEST VIRGINIA- 3 seats
Despite being a long-time Democratic stronghold, this entire state has been trending Republican for decades. The Republican incumbent in District 2 will almost certainly cruise to re-election. The District 1 Democratic incumbent lost in the primary over ethics issues, leaving the seat open- but the Democrat who won the primary is a Republican In All But Name, so that race becomes a tossup for simple reasons of, "What's the difference?"
That leaves District 3 and longtime incumbent Nick Rahall. He faces a former Democatic judge- weak opposition- and has served in Congress long enough to have what amounts to an anchor in Washington. That said, I'm only giving him a Lean D rather than a Strong/Solid D, because of ethics problems surrounding his recently convicted son and the simple shift of the state towards the modern rabid Southern version of conservatism.
STATE SCORE: D 1, R 1, 1 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 199, R 204, 23 Tossup
WISCONSIN- 8 seats
One Republican (6th) without organized Democratic opposition; two more (1st, 5th) with non-credible Democratic opponents; two Democrats (2, 4) with non-credible Republican opponents.
That leaves the 3rd, 7th and 8th. All three are potentially swing districts. All three are currently held by liberal Democrats. Although one of them (Obey, 7th) is retiring, the stronger of the two Republicans in that race is the man Obey beat down 60-40 in 2008, making that seat Lean D. Ron Kind (3rd) overwhelmingly won his re-election fight in 2008 and faces only middleweight opposition this year, and so also Leans D. Finally, the controversial two-term Dr. Steve Kagen (8th), whose wins have both been narrow ones, faces a field with the strongest candidate being a state representative... but his past underperformance and confrontational attitude, plus the current environment, make his race a tossup at best.
STATE SCORE: D 4, R 3, 1 Tossup
RUNNING TOTAL: D 203, R 207, 24 Tossup
WYOMING- 1 seat
Republican incumbent. Non-credible Democratic opponent. The end.
STATE SCORE: D 0, R 1, 0 Tossup
My final prediction count: D 203, R 208, 24 Tossup.
It takes 218 for a clear majority in the House.
Buckle your seats, America, it's going to be a very bumpy ride.
