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redneckgaijinAs I type this the Colorado senate race is being called for Michael Bennett, which means the Democrats will have fifty seats even without independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Liebermann.
On the other hand, in House races Republicans practically swept the board, even taking seats nobody had ever expected them to pick up. One Republican candidate in particular people laughed at because he attended a strip club lingerie party in ducky pajamas holds a microscopic lead over a long-time Democratic incumbent in south Texas.
Liberalism or conservatism had nothing to do with the results. Alan Grayson, Pat Murphy, and Russ Feingold all ran on the Democratic agenda of the past two years proudly and loudly- and lost. Bobby Bright ran ads boasting that he, a Democrat, voted with Republicans over eighty percent of the time- and also lost. The Blue Dog Caucus in the House will shrink from 57 to 24 members in the next Congress. Both fake and real Democrats got hammered.
So, why did the Democrats lose this badly? Here are my reasons.
1: Failure to help those who really needed it. True, the Troubled Asset Relief Program didn't come down under Obama, but the stimulus package did- and Obama had authority over TARP once he took office. Instead of bailing out those who had been given fraudulent mortgages or who were just plain sinking due to the economy, Obama made the decision to provide help to the banks first, to the well-off mortgage holder second, and the truly needy... never, because, in his words, they were "people who don't deserve help." Instead of aiming the stimulus at the most needy, Obama and the Democrats loaded it up with tax cuts and incentives for the upper-middle class and wealthier, such as incentives to make homes energy-efficient (which required you to first have enough money to do that at all).
And on healthcare? Obama's solution to health care reform was to mandate the purchase of corporate insurance- WITHOUT any solid mechanism to bring those rates down. NOTHING was done to stop overcharging for services by doctors, hospitals, pharmaceuticals, and medical equipment manufacturers. NOTHING was done to allow the poor to actually pay for that health insurance- the vouchers offered by government don't kick in until AFTER you buy the policy. The poor would still be unable to afford healthcare- and they would be PUNISHED for being too poor to afford it.
Granted, conservative Democrats did a lot to make all this happen, but Obama, insofar as he did any leading at all, led the way on all of this. He turned his back on the core constituency of the Democrats- the poor and struggling- and his party has paid the price.
2: Failure to make the case for their agenda. The Democratic Party had no coherent campaign message whatever. The Republicans did. Democrats, for whatever reason, chose not to make a stand on things that worked out well- saving the American auto industry, avoiding a second Great Depression, reducing the deficit left by Bush (which, believe it or not, they DID- the 2010 deficit actually shrank from 2009), etc. They let the Republicans drown them out with outright lies about a radical socialist Democratic president and Congress. The best they could do to give anyone a reason to vote Democratic was: "Republicans don't know how to drive."
And, last but most important: 3: FEAR. Republicans played the fear card- indeed, played every fear card in the deck. Fear of Muslims. Fear of non-whites. Fear of socialism. Fear of rationed health care. Fear for Social Security and Medicare (and isn't THAT an irony?). Democrats, and especially Obama, took exactly the wrong message from the 2008 election- that hope could win elections. In truth the Democrats won because America was afraid of more Republican rule in general- and McCain-Palin rule specifically. Fear, hatred and bigotry are ugly and evil things... but they win elections in the United States.
So what happens next? Gridlock, followed by government shutdown... and you can expect that to happen immediately. Current Republican incumbents have promised to filibuster everything in the upcoming lame-duck session of Congress... including the budget bills for 2011 that STILL have not passed. Even if a budget manages to pass this year, come October 1, 2011, the federal government will shut down... because there is no way on Earth that a Republican, teabagger House is going to present Obama with any budget acceptable to even the most spineless Democrat.
Bear in mind that the government shutdown in 1995 threatened even Social Security and Medicare- those programs only continued through special temporary-funding bills passed for that specific purpose. The current Republican Party is now open in its goal of privatizing or outright abolishing both. There will be no special funding bills to save them. In addition, any paycheck from the federal government- for government workers, federal law enforcement, and especially our military- will start bouncing.
And the Republicans will not make any compromises this time. They have been elected in this election on precisely this point- that they will either change the government, or destroy it.
And the best thing the Democrats can do now is to let it happen.
Consider: the Republicans are NOT going to actually balance the budget. It can't be done without raising taxes or gutting the defense budget- or more practically both. The deficit is going to get bigger, the dollar is going to slide further or perhaps go into free-fall, and the markets are going to tank as a result.
Also consider: Republicans are in outright denial of the causes for the economic downturn (lax or nonexistent regulation of the markets and excessive and often fraudulent borrowing). Likewise, they're going to push forward on supply-side economics, a theory which has proven to fail and fail miserably.
The economy is NOT going to recover under Republican control of government.
So the Democrats are left with the following options.
A: Keep government running, even on Republican terms. Bad move. In 2012 Republicans can (and will) still point to Obama and to the Senate and blame the bad economy on the Democrats- and win as a result.
B: Dig in heels and fight Republicans as a united party at every step of the way, whatever the cost. This will, in the short term, be worse for the country- it will certainly trigger the depression narrowly averted by TARP and the stimulus package. Politically, though, it is the only way that Democrats can make the case that what's happening is not their fault. Only by fighting Republican attempts to privatize Social Security and Medicare, only by fighting against even more tax cuts for the wealthiest among us, only by meeting no-compromise with no-compromise can Democrats make a case that Republican policies and Republican intransigence are the cause of Washington's failure to function.
If the Democrats fail to stand united in the next two years, then the Republicans will gain the dominance the Democrats thought they would have two years ago. The Democratic Party is on the brink of total repudiation- not of their policies, many of which have majority support in this country, but of their inability to govern as a united party.
If, on the other hand, the Democrats find their message in opposing unpopular Republican agenda items, then it is just possible that the tidal wave we had last night will go the other direction in 2012.
Myself? I don't think it'll happen- not so long as Barack Obama is in office. Obama is himself a Blue Dog in all but name, and I expect he'll continue seeking bipartisanship- a word the Republicans spell S-U-R-R-E-N-D-E-R. I expect continued Democratic division and incoherence, continued Republican domination of the message war, and Republicans retaking the Senate and White House in 2012 after all but destroying the federal government- and blaming the Democrats for the destruction.
It's going to be a very long two years.
On the other hand, in House races Republicans practically swept the board, even taking seats nobody had ever expected them to pick up. One Republican candidate in particular people laughed at because he attended a strip club lingerie party in ducky pajamas holds a microscopic lead over a long-time Democratic incumbent in south Texas.
Liberalism or conservatism had nothing to do with the results. Alan Grayson, Pat Murphy, and Russ Feingold all ran on the Democratic agenda of the past two years proudly and loudly- and lost. Bobby Bright ran ads boasting that he, a Democrat, voted with Republicans over eighty percent of the time- and also lost. The Blue Dog Caucus in the House will shrink from 57 to 24 members in the next Congress. Both fake and real Democrats got hammered.
So, why did the Democrats lose this badly? Here are my reasons.
1: Failure to help those who really needed it. True, the Troubled Asset Relief Program didn't come down under Obama, but the stimulus package did- and Obama had authority over TARP once he took office. Instead of bailing out those who had been given fraudulent mortgages or who were just plain sinking due to the economy, Obama made the decision to provide help to the banks first, to the well-off mortgage holder second, and the truly needy... never, because, in his words, they were "people who don't deserve help." Instead of aiming the stimulus at the most needy, Obama and the Democrats loaded it up with tax cuts and incentives for the upper-middle class and wealthier, such as incentives to make homes energy-efficient (which required you to first have enough money to do that at all).
And on healthcare? Obama's solution to health care reform was to mandate the purchase of corporate insurance- WITHOUT any solid mechanism to bring those rates down. NOTHING was done to stop overcharging for services by doctors, hospitals, pharmaceuticals, and medical equipment manufacturers. NOTHING was done to allow the poor to actually pay for that health insurance- the vouchers offered by government don't kick in until AFTER you buy the policy. The poor would still be unable to afford healthcare- and they would be PUNISHED for being too poor to afford it.
Granted, conservative Democrats did a lot to make all this happen, but Obama, insofar as he did any leading at all, led the way on all of this. He turned his back on the core constituency of the Democrats- the poor and struggling- and his party has paid the price.
2: Failure to make the case for their agenda. The Democratic Party had no coherent campaign message whatever. The Republicans did. Democrats, for whatever reason, chose not to make a stand on things that worked out well- saving the American auto industry, avoiding a second Great Depression, reducing the deficit left by Bush (which, believe it or not, they DID- the 2010 deficit actually shrank from 2009), etc. They let the Republicans drown them out with outright lies about a radical socialist Democratic president and Congress. The best they could do to give anyone a reason to vote Democratic was: "Republicans don't know how to drive."
And, last but most important: 3: FEAR. Republicans played the fear card- indeed, played every fear card in the deck. Fear of Muslims. Fear of non-whites. Fear of socialism. Fear of rationed health care. Fear for Social Security and Medicare (and isn't THAT an irony?). Democrats, and especially Obama, took exactly the wrong message from the 2008 election- that hope could win elections. In truth the Democrats won because America was afraid of more Republican rule in general- and McCain-Palin rule specifically. Fear, hatred and bigotry are ugly and evil things... but they win elections in the United States.
So what happens next? Gridlock, followed by government shutdown... and you can expect that to happen immediately. Current Republican incumbents have promised to filibuster everything in the upcoming lame-duck session of Congress... including the budget bills for 2011 that STILL have not passed. Even if a budget manages to pass this year, come October 1, 2011, the federal government will shut down... because there is no way on Earth that a Republican, teabagger House is going to present Obama with any budget acceptable to even the most spineless Democrat.
Bear in mind that the government shutdown in 1995 threatened even Social Security and Medicare- those programs only continued through special temporary-funding bills passed for that specific purpose. The current Republican Party is now open in its goal of privatizing or outright abolishing both. There will be no special funding bills to save them. In addition, any paycheck from the federal government- for government workers, federal law enforcement, and especially our military- will start bouncing.
And the Republicans will not make any compromises this time. They have been elected in this election on precisely this point- that they will either change the government, or destroy it.
And the best thing the Democrats can do now is to let it happen.
Consider: the Republicans are NOT going to actually balance the budget. It can't be done without raising taxes or gutting the defense budget- or more practically both. The deficit is going to get bigger, the dollar is going to slide further or perhaps go into free-fall, and the markets are going to tank as a result.
Also consider: Republicans are in outright denial of the causes for the economic downturn (lax or nonexistent regulation of the markets and excessive and often fraudulent borrowing). Likewise, they're going to push forward on supply-side economics, a theory which has proven to fail and fail miserably.
The economy is NOT going to recover under Republican control of government.
So the Democrats are left with the following options.
A: Keep government running, even on Republican terms. Bad move. In 2012 Republicans can (and will) still point to Obama and to the Senate and blame the bad economy on the Democrats- and win as a result.
B: Dig in heels and fight Republicans as a united party at every step of the way, whatever the cost. This will, in the short term, be worse for the country- it will certainly trigger the depression narrowly averted by TARP and the stimulus package. Politically, though, it is the only way that Democrats can make the case that what's happening is not their fault. Only by fighting Republican attempts to privatize Social Security and Medicare, only by fighting against even more tax cuts for the wealthiest among us, only by meeting no-compromise with no-compromise can Democrats make a case that Republican policies and Republican intransigence are the cause of Washington's failure to function.
If the Democrats fail to stand united in the next two years, then the Republicans will gain the dominance the Democrats thought they would have two years ago. The Democratic Party is on the brink of total repudiation- not of their policies, many of which have majority support in this country, but of their inability to govern as a united party.
If, on the other hand, the Democrats find their message in opposing unpopular Republican agenda items, then it is just possible that the tidal wave we had last night will go the other direction in 2012.
Myself? I don't think it'll happen- not so long as Barack Obama is in office. Obama is himself a Blue Dog in all but name, and I expect he'll continue seeking bipartisanship- a word the Republicans spell S-U-R-R-E-N-D-E-R. I expect continued Democratic division and incoherence, continued Republican domination of the message war, and Republicans retaking the Senate and White House in 2012 after all but destroying the federal government- and blaming the Democrats for the destruction.
It's going to be a very long two years.
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no subject
Date: 2010-11-03 04:00 pm (UTC)Not. Gonna. Happen.
We've had two full years of Republicans being "the party of NO", which is why Obama hasn't been able to do more to fix the economy. But talk to any Republican voter, and it's the Democrats who have been the obstructionists, not allowing anything to get done. They don't even SEE reality any more, and that isn't going to change. In fact, it'll be worse with a Republican-controlled House, because now they CAN blame the Democrats for doing exactly what the Republicans have been doing for the last 2 years -- and they will. IOKIYAR.
no subject
Date: 2010-11-03 04:12 pm (UTC)It's the liberal base that- with quite a bit of Blue-Dog justification- believes that the Democrats, or at least some of them, have been obstructionist.
There's not a whisper about Democrats blocking Republican initiatives, because Republicans haven't put forward any serious initiatives at all.