Thoughts on Santorum's hat trick.
Feb. 8th, 2012 02:25 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
redneckgaijinThe day after the South Carolina primaries I had these thoughts on what could be learned from the outcome. Florida gave me cause to doubt some of those points, as did Nevada, but last night's so-called "beauty contests" nudge me back in the other direction.
Let's review the points I made:
1. It will be April, at a minimum, before a Republican nominee is chosen, if at all. Last night made that pretty clear, indeed. Romney was supposed to have carried Colorado regardless of what happened elsewhere. Instead he lost Colorado and came in THIRD in Minnesota.
2. You CANNOT skip a state and maintain momentum. The next couple contests should establish whether this is true or false. Ron Paul skipped Florida in favor of Nevada and Maine, and he only came in second in Nevada- a distant second. Romney in turn skipped Missouri (as did everyone except Santorum) and spent only lightly in Colorado and Minnesota (more on this in a bit). The key now is whether Romney can get back to winning in contests that actually bind delegates to vote for the winners.
3. Money is not a guarantee, but it is a prerequisite. Confirmed. Romney slowed down his spending, and immediately the others came roaring back.
4. Favorite son candidates get votes. Indeed this might be the only explanation, short of spending, for Romney's Nevada win.
5. Late deciding voters don't want Ron Paul. Paul came in second in Nevada and Minnesota- hotbeds of extremist teabagger Republicanism. In the other two contests he came in a distant last place. On the other hand, with nobody taking a dominant lead, his goal of a brokered convention come August might actually happen...
6. Mitt Romney has a support ceiling. Oh, yes. And it might be lower than we thought.
7. Ron Paul, at this moment, is Mitt Romney's best friend in the world. Yep- except last night may show signs that Gingrich is losing his ability to split the hell-no-Romney vote. And if Gingrich sinks for good, Ron Paul won't be enough of a split to deny a LOT of state wins to Santorum.
8. Republicans HATE women. Nothing to change that diagnosis.
9. The nomination, however it is decided, will be made on a political platform so toxic as to make a Republican unelectable. Considering in the past week that Santorum claimed that legal contraception and tolerance of homosexuality were destroying America, and Ron Paul called for the federal government to be stripped of all its land holdings (including all national parks and preserves), this is only getting more obvious.
Add to this one other, crystal clear insight: 10. If Romney ends up the nominee, it will only be because he bought it. When Romney outspends all the competition combined- which he can afford to do- he either wins or comes close. When Romney cuts down on spending, he falls far, far behind. He only wins through massive negative ad buys making his opponents too unpopular for even hardened Republicans to vote for.
Last night's vote brought a couple of new facts to the fore, though; namely, that the total vote in the GOP nominating battle to date is down between 30% and 40% on the whole- down in every state except South Carolina, in fact. And the fact that Romney's vote totals in particular are down from 2008 in particular suggests something:
11. Social conservatives are driving out moderates from the Republican Party, and now totally dominate its base. Not exactly news, but the severity of this change bears repeating. Electorally speaking Rick Santorum is what is called in Texas a post turtle- a turtle set on his shell on top of a fence post, unable to get down, who clearly didn't get there without help. Santorum is even less charismatic than Romney. His platform is almost naked in its call for a Christian fascist state in which women are second-class citizens and religious obedience is mandatory. And yet Santorum, the least electable of the four (yes, Ron Paul is a better candidate per se), is the most likely to challenge or even knock out Romney.
Why? Because of the four remaining major contenders, Santorum is the only candidate who does not have at least a question mark beside his position on abortion, immigration, and homosexuality. Simply put, he's the hater's choice. Gingrich at one point favored amnesty for immigrants and civil unions for gays and lesbians. Ron Paul's libertarianism and his avowed live-and-let-live stance, plus past calls for open borders, undercuts him with social conservatives. Romney has his Massachusetts governorship around his neck like a millstone. Only Santorum is solid- and extreme- on all these issues.
And guess what? The other three know this, which is why they've all spent a lot of their time trying to get at least as far to the right, if not farther than, Rick Santorum.
And those Republicans who aren't as rabid about Jackboot Christ as Santorum? They're sitting out the primaries and caucuses. They have no one to support or to speak on their behalf.
And the question of whether or not they will come back in November won't be answered until then, though at least one poll suggests not...
Let's review the points I made:
1. It will be April, at a minimum, before a Republican nominee is chosen, if at all. Last night made that pretty clear, indeed. Romney was supposed to have carried Colorado regardless of what happened elsewhere. Instead he lost Colorado and came in THIRD in Minnesota.
2. You CANNOT skip a state and maintain momentum. The next couple contests should establish whether this is true or false. Ron Paul skipped Florida in favor of Nevada and Maine, and he only came in second in Nevada- a distant second. Romney in turn skipped Missouri (as did everyone except Santorum) and spent only lightly in Colorado and Minnesota (more on this in a bit). The key now is whether Romney can get back to winning in contests that actually bind delegates to vote for the winners.
3. Money is not a guarantee, but it is a prerequisite. Confirmed. Romney slowed down his spending, and immediately the others came roaring back.
4. Favorite son candidates get votes. Indeed this might be the only explanation, short of spending, for Romney's Nevada win.
5. Late deciding voters don't want Ron Paul. Paul came in second in Nevada and Minnesota- hotbeds of extremist teabagger Republicanism. In the other two contests he came in a distant last place. On the other hand, with nobody taking a dominant lead, his goal of a brokered convention come August might actually happen...
6. Mitt Romney has a support ceiling. Oh, yes. And it might be lower than we thought.
7. Ron Paul, at this moment, is Mitt Romney's best friend in the world. Yep- except last night may show signs that Gingrich is losing his ability to split the hell-no-Romney vote. And if Gingrich sinks for good, Ron Paul won't be enough of a split to deny a LOT of state wins to Santorum.
8. Republicans HATE women. Nothing to change that diagnosis.
9. The nomination, however it is decided, will be made on a political platform so toxic as to make a Republican unelectable. Considering in the past week that Santorum claimed that legal contraception and tolerance of homosexuality were destroying America, and Ron Paul called for the federal government to be stripped of all its land holdings (including all national parks and preserves), this is only getting more obvious.
Add to this one other, crystal clear insight: 10. If Romney ends up the nominee, it will only be because he bought it. When Romney outspends all the competition combined- which he can afford to do- he either wins or comes close. When Romney cuts down on spending, he falls far, far behind. He only wins through massive negative ad buys making his opponents too unpopular for even hardened Republicans to vote for.
Last night's vote brought a couple of new facts to the fore, though; namely, that the total vote in the GOP nominating battle to date is down between 30% and 40% on the whole- down in every state except South Carolina, in fact. And the fact that Romney's vote totals in particular are down from 2008 in particular suggests something:
11. Social conservatives are driving out moderates from the Republican Party, and now totally dominate its base. Not exactly news, but the severity of this change bears repeating. Electorally speaking Rick Santorum is what is called in Texas a post turtle- a turtle set on his shell on top of a fence post, unable to get down, who clearly didn't get there without help. Santorum is even less charismatic than Romney. His platform is almost naked in its call for a Christian fascist state in which women are second-class citizens and religious obedience is mandatory. And yet Santorum, the least electable of the four (yes, Ron Paul is a better candidate per se), is the most likely to challenge or even knock out Romney.
Why? Because of the four remaining major contenders, Santorum is the only candidate who does not have at least a question mark beside his position on abortion, immigration, and homosexuality. Simply put, he's the hater's choice. Gingrich at one point favored amnesty for immigrants and civil unions for gays and lesbians. Ron Paul's libertarianism and his avowed live-and-let-live stance, plus past calls for open borders, undercuts him with social conservatives. Romney has his Massachusetts governorship around his neck like a millstone. Only Santorum is solid- and extreme- on all these issues.
And guess what? The other three know this, which is why they've all spent a lot of their time trying to get at least as far to the right, if not farther than, Rick Santorum.
And those Republicans who aren't as rabid about Jackboot Christ as Santorum? They're sitting out the primaries and caucuses. They have no one to support or to speak on their behalf.
And the question of whether or not they will come back in November won't be answered until then, though at least one poll suggests not...
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no subject
Date: 2012-02-08 11:06 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-02-08 11:23 pm (UTC)Sadly, this view also extends to a lot of Republican women, who are perfectly happy to vote against their own civil rights.
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Date: 2012-02-09 03:03 am (UTC)