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redneckgaijinSo, while researching sources of news for the LYAN Roar, I discovered the blog The Next Prez. It's going on my list because it makes a point of covering third parties, especially the LP.
First, your standard "Who do you favor for President" poll from Friday:
However, also included was a poll question asking whether party members have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of various candidates. Usually the only person we see these results for is for George "The Dubya Stands For Won't Be Impeached" Bush. First, the various candidates polled, ranked in order of "Favorable" rating:
But here's a scale you never, ever see: which candidates are the most unpopular, even among the members of their own party? Here they are again, ranked by UNfaforability... and this time, low is good.
So, what do these numbers mean? First, that John Kerry is the only person who thinks his 2008 campaign is in any way viable. Ditto Newt Gingrich- when over a quarter of your own party says not merely "no" but "HELL no", it's time to hang it up. Surprisingly- or perhaps not so surprising, considering his recent catering to the theocrats and his demands for more long-term troops in Iraq- McCain's campaign is in serious trouble, if not also dead on arrival.
This poll also brings up something which ought to be obvious, but might not be: Hilary Clinton is vulnerable. Very vulnerable. She just barely beats out Al Gore's numbers for favorable/unfavorable... and with only a 3% unknown rating, she's got little room to improve.
Finally, John "Junk Science Lawsuit Multimillionaire" Edwards shows up surprisingly strong here. On "first choice for President" he's back a bit in the pack, but his favorability is high and unfavorability fairly low among Democrats. He stands a good chance of being able to make a move if Clinton stumbles.
Long story short: Kerry packs it in, Gore never jumps in (if he has any sense), and the only serious contenders for the Democrat nod are Hilary, Obama and Edwards. On the Republican side, Gingrich hits a wall and McCain gets more and more unelectable day by day. The Republican nod is essentially Giuliani's for the taking... but if he bows out, McCain's only advantage is the support of the party machine.
And the only way the Democrats lose in 2008, I suspect, is a Clinton - Giuliani contest...
Oh- and finally, in non-scientific TNP polling for November, Steve Kubby holds a slim lead in the race for the Libertarian nomination... but again that's non-scientific.
EDIT: By the way, SelectSmart has updated its candidate finder as of the end of November. Now you can answer seventeen questions and find out which (among 24 Two Headed Monster Party candidates) candidate best represents you! My top five: Barack Obama (100% match), Russ Feingold (94% match), Mike Huckabee (91% match), Dennis Kucinich (89% match), Bill Richardson (87% match). Dead last: Hilary Clinton (54% match).
First, your standard "Who do you favor for President" poll from Friday:
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS |
| Clinton -- 39% Obama -- 17% Edwards -- 12% Gore -- 10% Kerry -- 7% Richardson -- 2% Biden -- 2% Other/None/Don't Know -- about 11% | Giuliani -- 34% McCain -- 26% Gingrich -- 12% Romney -- 5% Pataki -- 3% Thompson -- 2% Other/None/Don't Know -- about 18% |
However, also included was a poll question asking whether party members have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of various candidates. Usually the only person we see these results for is for George "The Dubya Stands For Won't Be Impeached" Bush. First, the various candidates polled, ranked in order of "Favorable" rating:
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS |
| Clinton -- 79% Gore -- 74% Edwards -- 65% Kerry -- 58% Obama -- 54% Biden -- 31% Richardson -- 22% Dodd -- 19% Bayh -- 18% Vilsack -- 15% | Giuliani -- 86% Rice -- 84% McCain -- 65% Gingrich -- 59% Pataki -- 35% Romney -- 21% Thompson -- 21% Hagel -- 10% Brownback -- 8% Hunter -- 8% |
But here's a scale you never, ever see: which candidates are the most unpopular, even among the members of their own party? Here they are again, ranked by UNfaforability... and this time, low is good.
| DEMOCRATS | REPUBLICANS |
| Kerry -- 34% Gore -- 22% Clinton -- 18% Edwards -- 11% Biden -- 8% Richardson -- 8% Obama -- 5% Dodd -- 4% Bayh -- 2% Vilsack -- 3% | Gingrich -- 26% McCain -- 20% Romney -- 13% Pataki -- 12% Rice -- 9% Giuliani -- 8% Hagel -- 8% Thompson -- 6% Brownback -- 4% Hunter -- 3% |
So, what do these numbers mean? First, that John Kerry is the only person who thinks his 2008 campaign is in any way viable. Ditto Newt Gingrich- when over a quarter of your own party says not merely "no" but "HELL no", it's time to hang it up. Surprisingly- or perhaps not so surprising, considering his recent catering to the theocrats and his demands for more long-term troops in Iraq- McCain's campaign is in serious trouble, if not also dead on arrival.
This poll also brings up something which ought to be obvious, but might not be: Hilary Clinton is vulnerable. Very vulnerable. She just barely beats out Al Gore's numbers for favorable/unfavorable... and with only a 3% unknown rating, she's got little room to improve.
Finally, John "Junk Science Lawsuit Multimillionaire" Edwards shows up surprisingly strong here. On "first choice for President" he's back a bit in the pack, but his favorability is high and unfavorability fairly low among Democrats. He stands a good chance of being able to make a move if Clinton stumbles.
Long story short: Kerry packs it in, Gore never jumps in (if he has any sense), and the only serious contenders for the Democrat nod are Hilary, Obama and Edwards. On the Republican side, Gingrich hits a wall and McCain gets more and more unelectable day by day. The Republican nod is essentially Giuliani's for the taking... but if he bows out, McCain's only advantage is the support of the party machine.
And the only way the Democrats lose in 2008, I suspect, is a Clinton - Giuliani contest...
Oh- and finally, in non-scientific TNP polling for November, Steve Kubby holds a slim lead in the race for the Libertarian nomination... but again that's non-scientific.
EDIT: By the way, SelectSmart has updated its candidate finder as of the end of November. Now you can answer seventeen questions and find out which (among 24 Two Headed Monster Party candidates) candidate best represents you! My top five: Barack Obama (100% match), Russ Feingold (94% match), Mike Huckabee (91% match), Dennis Kucinich (89% match), Bill Richardson (87% match). Dead last: Hilary Clinton (54% match).
