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redneckgaijin... it looks as if the Iranian government has taken the gloves off completely in crushing dissent.
The regime is not only beating and killing protesters, it's tracking them down and arresting them.
The demonstrations are not being given time to form, and those that do get to the streets are much smaller than the million-strong marches immediately after the election. One of the opposition candidates (the one who ran to the right of Ahmadinejad) has withdrawn his opposition and endorsed the election results. At this point we can say, with some confidence, that any hope of a swift "velvet revolution" is gone- and there's not much hope of a long-haul peaceful revolution, either.
This amounts to a validation of something I've held for years; nonviolent protest is only effective under regimes which respect the will of the people. Ghandi's protests were against the rule of Great Britain, a Parliamentary monarchy in which popular opinion counted for much. Martin Luther King, Jr.'s protests were here in the United States, an elective republic. Ukraine's Orange Revolution was in a republic, as well. Serbia's revolution came in a dictatorship with the trappings of a republic, but only after the then-leader had lost the support of his armed forces.
Contrast with the Islamic Revolution in Iran of 1979 (which didn't happen until the Shah left Iran for medical reasons, and only when his armed forces effectively joined the protesters), Tienammen Square (crushed ruthlessly and bloodily by the Chinese oligarchy), protests against the various corrupt governments of South Vietnam (crushed by the secret police), etc.
No dictatorship has ever fallen to a velvet revolution so long as it held control of the military- period.
If the regime is to fall in Iran, the protests- even if they continue- will not do it. It will require some form of armed uprising- say, former President Rafsanjani calling out the professional army, or the protesters organizing their own militia to counter the Bassij. If this happens, there will either be a swift coup or a civil war, depending on the actions of the military. If it doesn't, then the Republican Guard, seeing no opposition it is bound to respect, will do as they have done- use deadly force to stifle dissent.
Ghandi will not help in this situation. Ho Chi Minh and Fidel Castro knew how to do it- and it is their tactics (but I hope not their politics) which show the only path to the overthrow of Khameni and Ahmadinejad.
It's up to the Iranian people to decide if the bloodshed involved is worth it, and if the effort would be successful.
The regime is not only beating and killing protesters, it's tracking them down and arresting them.
The demonstrations are not being given time to form, and those that do get to the streets are much smaller than the million-strong marches immediately after the election. One of the opposition candidates (the one who ran to the right of Ahmadinejad) has withdrawn his opposition and endorsed the election results. At this point we can say, with some confidence, that any hope of a swift "velvet revolution" is gone- and there's not much hope of a long-haul peaceful revolution, either.
This amounts to a validation of something I've held for years; nonviolent protest is only effective under regimes which respect the will of the people. Ghandi's protests were against the rule of Great Britain, a Parliamentary monarchy in which popular opinion counted for much. Martin Luther King, Jr.'s protests were here in the United States, an elective republic. Ukraine's Orange Revolution was in a republic, as well. Serbia's revolution came in a dictatorship with the trappings of a republic, but only after the then-leader had lost the support of his armed forces.
Contrast with the Islamic Revolution in Iran of 1979 (which didn't happen until the Shah left Iran for medical reasons, and only when his armed forces effectively joined the protesters), Tienammen Square (crushed ruthlessly and bloodily by the Chinese oligarchy), protests against the various corrupt governments of South Vietnam (crushed by the secret police), etc.
No dictatorship has ever fallen to a velvet revolution so long as it held control of the military- period.
If the regime is to fall in Iran, the protests- even if they continue- will not do it. It will require some form of armed uprising- say, former President Rafsanjani calling out the professional army, or the protesters organizing their own militia to counter the Bassij. If this happens, there will either be a swift coup or a civil war, depending on the actions of the military. If it doesn't, then the Republican Guard, seeing no opposition it is bound to respect, will do as they have done- use deadly force to stifle dissent.
Ghandi will not help in this situation. Ho Chi Minh and Fidel Castro knew how to do it- and it is their tactics (but I hope not their politics) which show the only path to the overthrow of Khameni and Ahmadinejad.
It's up to the Iranian people to decide if the bloodshed involved is worth it, and if the effort would be successful.
